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2014-10-29
去年的,老了点,但是未必过时。


http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/21/opinion/yes-economics-is-a-science.html?pagewanted=all&_r=1&

Yes, Economics Is a ScienceBy RAJ CHETTYPublished: October 20, 2013 363 Comments
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CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — THERE’S an old lament about my profession: if you ask three economists a question, you’ll get three different answers.



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This saying came to mind last week, when the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science was awarded to three economists, two of whom,Robert J. Shiller of Yale and Eugene F. Fama of the University of Chicago, might be seen as having conflicting views about the workings of financial markets. At first blush, Mr. Shiller’s thinking about the role of “irrational exuberance” in stock markets and housing markets appears to contradict Mr. Fama’s work showing that such markets efficiently incorporate news into prices.


What kind of science, people wondered, bestows its most distinguished honor on scholars with opposing ideas? “They should make these politically balanced awards in physics, chemistry and medicine, too,” the Duke sociologist Kieran Healy wrote sardonically on Twitter.


But the headline-grabbing differences between the findings of these Nobel laureates are less significant than the profound agreement in their scientific approach to economic questions, which is characterized by formulating and testing precise hypotheses. I’m troubled by the sense among skeptics that disagreements about the answers to certain questions suggest that economics is a confused discipline, a fake science whose findings cannot be a useful basis for making policy decisions.

That view is unfair and uninformed. It makes demands on economics that are not made of other empirical disciplines, like medicine, and it ignores an emerging body of work, building on the scientific approach of last week’s winners, that is transforming economics into a field firmly grounded in fact.


It is true that the answers to many “big picture” macroeconomic questions — like the causes of recessions or the determinants of growth — remain elusive. But in this respect, the challenges faced by economists are no different from those encountered in medicine and public health. Health researchers have worked for more than a century to understand the “big picture” questions of how diet and lifestyle affect health and aging, yet they still do not have a full scientific understanding of these connections. Some studies tell us to consume more coffee, wine and chocolate; others recommend the opposite. But few people would argue that medicine should not be approached as a science or that doctors should not make decisions based on the best available evidence.


As is the case with epidemiologists, the fundamental challenge faced by economists — and a root cause of many disagreements in the field — is our limited ability to run experiments. If we could randomize policy decisions and then observe what happens to the economy and people’s lives, we would be able to get a precise understanding of how the economy works and how to improve policy. But the practical and ethical costs of such experiments preclude this sort of approach. (Surely we don’t want to create more financial crises just to understand how they work.)


Nonetheless, economists have recently begun to overcome these challenges by developing tools that approximate scientific experiments to obtain compelling answers to specific policy questions. In previous decades the most prominent economists were typically theorists like Paul Krugman and Janet L. Yellen, whose models continue to guide economic thinking. Today, the most prominent economists are often empiricists like David Card of the University of California, Berkeley, and Esther Duflo of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who focus on testing old theories and formulating new ones that fit the evidence.

This kind of empirical work in economics might be compared to the “micro” advances in medicine (like research on therapies for heart disease) that have contributed enormously to increasing longevity and quality of life, even as the “macro” questions of the determinants of health remain contested.


Consider the politically charged question of whether extending unemployment benefits increases unemployment rates by reducing workers’ incentives to return to work. Nearly a dozen economic studies have analyzed this question by comparing unemployment rates in states that have extended unemployment benefits with those in states that do not. These studies approximate medical experiments in which some groups receive a treatment — in this case, extended unemployment benefits — while “control” groups don’t.


These studies have uniformly found that a 10-week extension in unemployment benefits raises the average amount of time people spend out of work by at most one week. This simple, unassailable finding implies that policy makers can extend unemployment benefits to provide assistance to those out of work without substantially increasing unemployment rates.

[size=1.5em]Other economic studies have taken advantage of the constraints inherent in a particular policy to obtain scientific evidence. An excellent recent example concerned health insurance in Oregon. In 2008, the state of Oregon decided to expand its state health insurance program to cover additional low-income individuals, but it had funding to cover only a small fraction of the eligible families. In collaboration with economics researchers, the state designed a lottery procedure by which individuals who received the insurance could be compared with those who did not, creating in effect a first-rate randomized experiment.

The study found that getting insurance coverage increased the use of health care, reduced financial strain and improved well-being — results that now provide invaluable guidance in understanding what we should expect from the Affordable Care Act.


Even when such experiments are unfeasible, there are ways to use “big data” to help answer policy questions. In a study that I conducted with two colleagues, we analyzed the impacts of high-quality elementary school teachers on their students’ outcomes as adults. You might think that it would be nearly impossible to isolate the causal effect of a third-grade teacher while accounting for all the other factors that affect a child’s life outcomes. Yet we were able to develop methods to identify the causal effect of teachers by comparing students in consecutive cohorts within a school. Suppose, for example, that an excellent teacher taught third grade in a given school in 1995 but then went on maternity leave in 1996. Since the teacher’s maternity leave is essentially a random event, by comparing the outcomes of students who happened to reach third grade in 1995 versus 1996, we are able to isolate the causal effect of teacher quality on students’ outcomes.


Using a data set with anonymous records on 2.5 million students, we found that high-quality teachers significantly improved their students’ performance on standardized tests and, more important, increased their earnings and college attendance rates, and reduced their risk of teenage pregnancy. These findings — which have since been replicated in other school districts — provide policy makers with guidance on how to measure and improve teacher quality.


These examples are not anomalous. And as the availability of data increases, economics will continue to become a more empirical, scientific field. In the meantime, it is simplistic and irresponsible to use disagreements among economists on a handful of difficult questions as an excuse to ignore the field’s many topics of consensus and its ability to inform policy decisions on the basis of evidence instead of ideology.


Raj Chetty is a professor of economics at Harvard.







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2014-10-30 00:28:36
the author ignored the key differences between economics and medical sciences -- objectivity and independence.

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2014-10-30 03:41:52
经济学不能脱离价值,也不能无视制度,它的科学性与自然科学的科学性是有区别的。
自然科学的问题答案一般是统一的。经济学问题的答案却是多样的。
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2014-10-30 17:35:36
meitianyiming 发表于 2014-10-30 03:41
经济学不能脱离价值,也不能无视制度,它的科学性与自然科学的科学性是有区别的。
自然科学的问题答案一般 ...
理论物理学内部的争吵并不比经济学来的少,自然科学问题的答案未必是统一的。但不能因此就不做了。
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2014-11-2 00:13:06
感觉上面的回复都没看Chetty到底在说什么。
谈谈我对这篇文章的理解:

       Chetty认为不能因为不同的经济学家对同一个问题有不同的看法而否认经济学的科

学性,经济学的科学性是体现在经济学的研究方法中的。这个研究方法就是首先提出理

论假设,然后用事实进行检验。(个人引申:可证伪性是科学的重要特征,虽然不一定

是全部的特征。几乎所有科学问题的答案都从来不只一个,答案的多样性是常态,同时

代的不同答案中经受住事实检验的一个会暂时成为胜利者,但很可能还会被未来的检验

所证伪,然后新的答案会出现,然后……。)
        当然,上述研究方法的要求能否在现实中做到就是另一回事了。提出理论之后是否

能够检验理论正确与否呢?Chetty接着就谈到了这一点,那就是经济学不能做实验,因

此制约了对理论的检验,这也是为什么有那么多不同观点的根本原因。

        那么经济学理论就无法被检验了吗?Chetty接着说道,尽管如此,经济学家们最近

还是发展了一些工具以接近科学实验的方式对一些问题做出回答。然后就举了两个例子

。(细节就不多说了,我个人感觉还是很有说服力的。)而且,即使没有这种实验,有

时也可以借助“大数据”来检验,并用自己的一篇文章做了说明。
   
       最后,Chetty展望未来说,随着可得到的数据越来越多,经济学将成为一个更加注

重经验检验,“更加科学”的领域。

个人感受:
       学习经济学有些日子了,对经济学是否是一门科学这个问题还真没有好好想过,认

识也很模糊,而且更倾向于认为经济学算不上科学。Chetty的这篇文章让我的认识有了

很大改变,虽然像Chetty提到的那样的有说服力的研究还不多(个人阅读量有限,可能

不准确),经济学中的很多理论还无法得到令人信服的检验,但就像Chetty说的,未来

是光明的。

附记:
       记得曼昆在一篇专栏里说过,现在的经济学就像两百年前的医学,当时的医学对人

体以及相关生物的认识如此之少,以至于医生的药方不但不能治愈疾病,还常常会使病

情加重。

       所以,虽然未来是光明的,但任重而道远啊!


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2014-11-2 09:53:00
duniqianbian 发表于 2014-11-2 00:13
感觉上面的回复都没看Chetty到底在说什么。
谈谈我对这篇文章的理解:
Chetty:随着可得到的数据越来越多,经济学将成为一个更加注重经验检验,“更加科学”的领域。

Chetty显然认为:可计量且可检测的实践数据,乃是科学的——必要条件。
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