大摩：中国航空业深度报告（88页）07年（88页）

Contents
Investment Case............................................................................................................................................................................... 4
The High P/BV Multiple Riddle ........................................................................................................................................................ 6
China Aviation – Strong Traffic Growth vs. Marginal Profitability................................................................................................ 9
Current Competitive Dynamics..................................................................................................................................................... 12
China Air Cargo Market ................................................................................................................................................................. 20
Strategies to Profit from the Industry........................................................................................................................................... 23

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Air China Limited: Strong Fundamentals in the Price ................................................................................................................. 51
Financial Summary, 2004-08E......................................................................................................................................................... 52
Bull and Bear Case Scenario Analysis ............................................................................................................................................. 53
Investment Case .............................................................................................................................................................................. 54
Cathay Pacific Airways: Passenger Yield on Uptrend; Raising Price Target ............................................................................ 61
Financial Summary.................................................................................................................................................................. 62
Risk-Reward Snapshot: Cathay Pacific Airways ............................................................................................................................... 63
Investment Case .............................................................................................................................................................................. 64
TravelSky Technology: Defensive Option on Secular Aviation Demand in China .................................................................... 71
Financial Summary 2004-08E .......................................................................................................................................................... 72
Risk-Reward Snapshot: TravelSky Technologies ............................................................................................................................. 73
Investment Case ................................................................................................................................................................. 74