PART I Yield Curve Analysis 1
CHAPTER 1 Demystifying the Investment World 3
CHAPTER 2 Back of the Envelope Forecast Model 10
CHAPTER 3 Money Markets Matter 32
CHAPTER 4 Long-Term Bonds Give Advance Warning 41
CHAPTER 5 Expected Returns for the Stock Market 51
CHAPTER 6 Bond Quality Spreads 60
CHAPTER 7 Federal Funds Rates 69
CHAPTER 8 Summary of Yield Curve Analysis 84
PART II Technical Analysis 95
CHAPTER 9 Market Breadth: Advancing Issues
in the Dow 98
CHAPTER 10 The Volatility Index 107
CHAPTER 11 The Put/Call Ratio 113
CHAPTER 12 Moving Averages 121
CHAPTER 13 Using Moving Averages: The MACD Line 130
CHAPTER 14 Leverage: Short Positions and Margin Debt 139
CHAPTER 15 Summary of Technical Analysis 146
PART III Cultural Indicators 157
CHAPTER 16 Changing Standards of Feminine Beauty 159
CHAPTER 17 Demographics 169
CHAPTER 18 Corporate Spending 182
CHAPTER 19 War and Rumors of War 197
CHAPTER 20 Summary of Cultural Indicators 217
PART IV Choosing Investments 231
CHAPTER 21 Asset Classes 233
CHAPTER 22 Mutual Funds 246
CHAPTER 23 Exchange-Traded Funds 258
CHAPTER 24 Security Selection 265
CHAPTER 25 Final Summary 280
PART V Capitalism at Work 293
CHAPTER 26 Outrageous Wall Street Stories 294
CHAPTER 27 America! America! God Shed His
Grace on Thee 310