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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">随着经济和科学技术的进步,特别是计算机和通讯技术的发展,精算的理论、方法和技术都发生了很大的变化,所研究的范围也越来越广。与</span><span lang="EN-US">ERM</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">的发展历史相对应,至今精算科学也经历了四个阶段(第四代精算技术,将用到但不限于金融工程,这就是楼主的所谓困惑):</span><span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><op> </op></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">寿险精算。</span><span lang="EN-US">17</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">世纪至</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">世纪</span><span lang="EN-US">70</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">年代,精算主要使用的是确定性分析方法,寿险的生命表是其典型的特征。</span><span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><op> </op></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">财产及意外险精算。主要是解决不确定性问题,使用概率、统计等方法。</span><span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><op> </op></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">金融风险管理。外汇风险、商品价格波动的风险对经济的影响很大,并进一步产生股票风险、利率风险、金融政策变动风险等。保险基金的风险也变为精算研究的核心问题</span><span lang="EN-US">--</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">开始分析资产投资组合和负债结构,以保证保险公司的偿付能力和获利能力</span><span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><op> </op></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 宋体;">企业风险管理(</span><span lang="EN-US">ERM</span><span style="font-family: 宋体;">)。针对企业面临的所有风险进行风险管理,涉及到每个企业和组织,世界上所有类型的企业和组织都需要企业风险管理。</span><span lang="EN-US"><op></op></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><op> </op></span></p>
<span style="; font-family: 宋体;">在精算科学的发展过程中,进展的速度越来越快。寿险精算经历了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif";">250</span><span style="; font-family: 宋体;">年左右才出现财产和意外险精算;随后约发展了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif";">70</span><span style="; font-family: 宋体;">年有了金融风险管理;仅过了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif";">30</span><span style="; font-family: 宋体;">年进入了企业风险管理(</span><span lang="EN-US" style="; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif";">ERM</span><span style="; font-family: 宋体;">)的时代。</span>
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-8-19 15:31:39编辑过]