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2014-11-19
这个大概可以看做对坛子里那两篇《寒门之子》帖子的呼应吧。


       昨晚上读文献 (http://idea.uab.es/christopher.rauh/IDEA/Welcome_files/rauh_JOB_MARKET_PAPER.pdf),写的是关于“了不起的盖茨比曲线”。因为第一次听说这个概念,查了一下背景,结果很受震动。
        
       首先,好像百度百科的介绍和维基有些出入。百度认为是Corak最先提出这个概念。根据维基,是Alan Krueger正式提出。而最先发明这个概念的是Cramer,只不过他们使用了Corak的数据。“The curve was introduced in a 2012 speech by chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers Alan Krueger,and the President’s Economic Report to Congress, using data from labor economist Miles Corak. The name was coined by former CEA staff economist Judd Cramer, for which he was given a bottle of wine as a reward.”
      
      了不起的盖茨比曲线(The Great Gatsby Curve)是一根向右上方倾斜的曲线,说明的是社会不平等与代际不动的正相关性。也就是说,在社会越不平等的国家,上一代人的社会地位就越可能传给下一代,穷人的孩子“逆袭”的可能性就越低。正如电影《了不起的盖茨比》的主人公,平民出身的盖茨比为了爱情,努力奋斗,希望跻身上流社会,最终黄粱梦醒,既没获得美人的真心,还丢了性命。
The_Great_Gatsby_Curve.png

   
         图中,我们可以看到纵轴是代际固化,横轴是贫富不平等。从数据上看,二者有明显的正相关。底端的斯堪的纳维亚诸国,社会平等,代际流动幅度也大;而右上角的拉美诸国以及中国,则社会不平等,代际固化也很严重。尤其是中国,在图中各国中,代际固化高居第二。
         这一曲线要表达的现实意义就是,在一个贫富悬殊的社会里,类似“美国梦”或者“逆袭”之类的宣传只能是麻醉剂加安慰剂,因为这样的社会里底层出身的人凭着自身努力改变命运的可能性太小了。那种“你穷是因为你懒”的论调,在这种社会里,未必是符合实际的。
        当然,针对“了不起的盖茨比曲线”,学界争论很大。曼昆就认为这种现象是通过数据分析手段人为制造出来的。而保罗.克鲁格曼则又写了专栏反驳曼昆(http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com//2013/06/22/greg-mankiw-and-the-gatsby-curve/?_r=0)。(顺便吐句槽,克鲁格曼永远都是超级mean,有时候读他的学术文章都会出一身冷汗,为嘛不能厚道一点呢)

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2014-11-19 09:25:59
屌丝逆袭,证明你知道屌丝形成的整个过程!这也证明了你全程的操纵性!
屌丝不可能具有制造“512”的能力,有些人却有这种能力!往哪里走!
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2014-11-19 18:13:34
meitianyiming 发表于 2014-11-19 09:25
屌丝逆袭,证明你知道屌丝形成的整个过程!这也证明了你全程的操纵性!
屌丝不可能具有制造“512”的能力, ...
?不明白您的意思
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2014-11-20 19:52:44
曼昆盖茨比曲线的看法

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.nl/2013/07/some-observations-on-great-gatsby-curve.htmlObservations on the Great Gatsby Curve



In recent years, some economists have drawn attention to a correlation that has been dubbed the Great Gatsby curve.  In particular, countries that have more inequality in income also have less economic mobility.  (By the way, the curve seems misnamed: Jay Gatsby lived in a time a great inequality and managed to move from being very poor to being very rich.  But never mind that.)

My own view is that this correlation is not particularly surprising.  Let me give you an analogy to explain why.

Suppose we collected data on various chess clubs (nations).  In every club, we have data on each member's win-loss record over the year (income).  We can then measure the variance of individuals' win-loss records (inequality).  We can also measure how a person's win-loss record in one year predicts his win-loss record in the subsequent year (mobility).

Some clubs have a bunch of players with similar levels of skill at chess.  In this case, everyone would have a win-lose record that is close to each other, and a person's club ranking one year would not have a lot of predictive value for his ranking the next.  That is, we would have small inequality and substantial mobility.

Other clubs are more heterogeneous.  They have some masters and some novices.  The masters have much better records than the novices, and their better records tend to persist year to year.  That is, we would have substantial inequality and little mobility.

If we put all these clubs together in a scatterplot, we would get something close to the Great Gatsby curve.

Notice a corollary: Suppose we combined two clubs, one that with mostly masters and one with mostly novices.  The new combined club would be more heterogeneous and, therefore, would exhibit more inequality and less mobility than either of the clubs separately.

The application of this corollary to the Great Gatsby curve is that if we looked at Europe as a whole, rather than each nation separately, we would find that Europe as a whole has more inequality and less mobility than the individual countries.  That is, Germans are richer on average than Greeks, and that difference in income tends to persist from generation to generation.  When people look at the Great Gatsby curve, they omit this fact, because the nation is the unit of analysis.  But it is not obvious that the political divisions that divide people are the right ones for economic analysis.  We combine the persistently rich Connecticut with the persistently poor Mississippi, so why not combine Germany with Greece?

The bottom line for me that the Great Gatsby curve is a bit interesting, but neither particularly surprising nor suggestive of any specific conclusions or policy recommendations.
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