x是税收，y是财政收入。因为lnx和lny存在单位根，两者又是协整，试着建了VEC。输出结果如下：
   Vector Error Correction Estimates  
Date: 11/22/14   Time: 16:46  
Sample (adjusted): 1988 2013  
Included observations: 26 after adjustments  
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]  
  
Cointegrating Eq:  CointEq1
  
LNY(-1)  1.000000
  
LNX(-1) -1.036419
  (0.00250)
[-414.445]
  
C  0.273162
  
Error Correction: D(LNY) D(LNX)
  
CointEq1  0.744882  1.844615
  (0.72692)  (0.78834)
[ 1.02471] [ 2.33988]
  
D(LNY(-1)) -0.243990 -0.716891
  (0.56820)  (0.61621)
[-0.42941] [-1.16339]
  
D(LNX(-1))  0.750472  1.209109
  (0.57287)  (0.62128)
[ 1.31001] [ 1.94616]
  
C  0.082480  0.082167
  (0.02877)  (0.03120)
[ 2.86700] [ 2.63360]
  
R-squared  0.290801  0.295113
Adj. R-squared  0.194092  0.198992
Sum sq. resids  0.045809  0.053877
S.E. equation  0.045632  0.049487
F-statistic  3.006971  3.070227
Log likelihood  45.54536  43.43643
Akaike AIC -3.195797 -3.033572
Schwarz SC -3.002244 -2.840018
Mean dependent  0.156645  0.151693
S.D. dependent  0.050830  0.055293
  
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.)   3.99E-07
Determinant resid covariance   2.85E-07
Log likelihood   122.1172
Akaike information criterion  -8.624401
Schwarz criterion  -8.140518
  
我看到R方值非常低 是不是说这个估计结果是错误的？？小弟才开始学的计量 做这个模型也是照着张晓彤的书上流程做的。因为作业要求比较急，感谢大虾耐心指导~