Capital Points
Friday, August 1, 2008
Karen Cordes, Carlos Gomes, Derek Holt, Steve Malyon, Erik Nilsson, Roger Quick, Mary Webb

Please see attached: Capital Points (August 1, 2008).

Capital Points (August 1st, 2008).
Friday, August 1st, 2008
Karen Cordes, Carlos Gomes, Derek Holt, Stephen Malyon, Erik Nilsson, Roger Quick, Sacha Tihanyi, Mary Webb

Please find this week's edition of Capital Points attached to this email. This issue includes the following:

* Our focus piece this week argues that it's early days for credit problems to fan out across the globe and across more products. While Canada is not immune to such developments, it is nonetheless better positioned to weather spreading credit woes in a manner that retains a comparative advantage on credit conditions.

* A preview of the upcoming week's data releases for the Canadian and U.S. economies is also provided.
* We argue that Canadian monetary policy is facing more dovish emerging conditions not only via disappointing growth figures, but also through evidence that July CPI numbers are likely to see lower headline CPI pressures alongside still muted core inflation.

* Mary Webb discusses her ongoing concerns about U.S. fiscal policy which is evolving in line with her long held views.

* Carlos Gomes explores problems with U.S. auto leasing markets. We continue to believe that auto financing is facing worse pressures than subprime mortgage follies.

* Roger Quick discusses recent liquidity measures announced by the Fed, and how they signal that the Fed is unlikely to be raising rates this year. We continue to argue that further cuts are in the cards late year and into 2009.

* Erik Nilsson evaluates evidence that U.K. housing markets are deteriorating at a quickening pace such that ultimately, one out of seven mortgagees could wind up in a negative equity position.

* Stephen Malyon and Sacha Tihanyi argue that China's yuan appreciation will be more restrained for the rest of 2008.

Have a wonderful weekend,

Derek, Karen and Mary

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-8-2 20:43:42编辑过]