Chávez’s socialist dream fades fast

By John Paul Rathbone in London

Result is no mandate for Maduro’s radical policies

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Only six weeks in the grave, and Hugo Chávez’s socialist dream is fading fast. On Sunday night his hand-picked successor, Nicolás Maduro, won Venezuela’s presidential election, but only by a whisker.

Mr Maduro – the self-proclaimed “son of Chávez” – won 50.7 per cent of the ballot, versus 49.1 per cent for Henrique Capriles, the opposition leader, a difference of just 235,000 votes. That compares with an 11-point win for Mr Chavez in October’s presidential election. Mr Capriles has refused to accept the result until it is audited. Mr Maduro has accepted.

Assume that the count stands and there is no evidence of jiggery-pokery. That still represents no kind of mandate for Mr Maduro or the radical socialism he espouses. Venezuela has become a country split in half, apparently irreconcilably.

Such a close result will also undermine Maduro’s standing within the ruling socialist party. The 50-year-old former foreign minister and union leader will struggle to reconcile chavismo’s various factions, many of whom may think they could do a better job. His biggest rival, Diosdado Cabello, runs both congress and the Socialist party, and has powerful allies in the military. He has already said the election results require deep self-criticism, which may be an acknowledgement of the Venezuelan state’s gross inefficiency and corruption – or an early challenge to Mr Maduro. Either way, the country is in a mess whoever comes to govern it.

For all of its controversy and complexities, much of Venezuela can be boiled down to a three letter word: oil. Over the past decade, propelled by a sixfold increase in oil prices, the country has enjoyed an unprecedented bonanza: almost $1,000bn of revenues. It was this abundance that projected Chávez and his chequebook onto the world stage. It was oil revenues, plus his unique charisma, which also helped to sustain his revolution at home. Any holes in the Bolivarian project were plugged by Chávez’s personality – and topped up with more petrodollars.

But Chávez died on March 5, Venezuelan oil output is declining and energy prices are no longer rising. The economy is on the ropes. Chávez might have been able to keep chavismo’s factions together under similar circumstances. But Mr Maduro is untested and without charisma. Nor can he spray petrodollars at Venezuela’s many problems, as Chávez did. The legacy of his 14 years as president is a country with a newly-entitled poor and a new “Boligarch” elite – but not the means to satisfy them.

For the opposition – not all of them rich – the chavista dream has been a nightmare. Towards the end of the 10-day electoral campaign, momentum was turning towards them. Mr Maduro’s lead narrowed much faster than most people thought.

That will spur the opposition and give them hope: Chávez’s death has proved a true game-changer. But it also puts Mr Capriles in a difficult spot. While wanting to press home his advantage, he also cannot appear a sore loser. Mexico’s controversial 2006 presidential election provides a cautionary tale. After a narrow defeat, Andrés Manuel López Obrador refused to recognise the result and organised mass protests and civil disobedience. Ultimately, these proved unpopular and undermined his support.

Venezuela is now waking to its baleful reality. Caracas has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. Inflation is running at about 30 per cent, the fiscal deficit at about 15 per cent of gross domestic product and the black market exchange rate has spiked to 25 bolivars per dollar, three times the official rate. The anaesthetic of abundant oil revenues is wearing off, and with that the chavista reverie. The current policy of diverting funds needed for oil investment into costly social programmes cannot continue – but neither can it be reversed without risk of social upheaval and political chaos.

Diplomats who know Mr Maduro say he is a pragmatist, someone who could put Venezuela’s economy on a better track. He might, for example, encourage more foreign investment in the oil sector, which would boost government cash flows. Yet his paper-thin margin also means Mr Maduro has to look strong, anti-capitalist and revolutionary to survive. It may prove an impossible balancing act. Having probably won a difficult election, Mr Maduro faces an even more difficult presidency.