As Congress sleeps the 2016 race begins

Voter interest in the next election – not least in Hillary Clinton – is intensifying

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As retirements go, Hillary Clinton’s is fairly run of the mill. Having slept off four years worth of gruelling diplomacy, Mrs Clinton, 65, has started to write her memoirs, set up a new website, and is exploring possibilities of worldwide philanthropy. Last week she released a six-minute video backing gay marriage. Pensioners everywhere will be familiar with the routine. Move along. Nothing to see here.

US voters may just be recovering from the latest presidential election. But 2016 is already intruding on Washington’s routine. On the Republican side, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul, the senators from Florida and Kentucky, have been duelling for weeks for their party’s mantle – they were going through the paces before Mitt Romney’s November 6 defeat. And Mrs Clinton is diligently laying her own groundwork.

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William Tecumseh Sherman, the civil war general, set the standard for presidential denial (“I will not accept if nominated and will not serve if elected.”). In her joint 60 minutes “exit” interview with Barack Obama, Mrs Clinton appeared surprised when asked about her 2016 plans, although it has been known to crop up before. “Oh I don’t think, either the president or I can make predictions about what’s going to happen tomorrow or the next year,” she said laughing. Barack Obama simply said: “You guys in the press are incorrigible.”

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In most democracies, people stand for election. In the US they keep running. There are three reasons why the next marathon is limbering up even sooner than usual. First, Republicans have never doubted Mrs Clinton will run: they cannot afford the polite fiction of taking the former First Lady’s non-denials literally. Without questioning whether Mrs Clinton would get her party’s nomination, Newt Gingrich, the former Republican contender, said in December that his party’s 2016 contender will find it very hard to defeat her. “Trying to win that will be truly the Super Bowl,” he said.

Potential rivals should be intimidated by Mrs Clinton’s gravity defying numbers. For the duration of Mr Obama’s presidency, she comfortably sustained her lead as America’s most popular leader. Mrs Clinton left office in late January with a 69 per cent approval rating. In December, a Washington Post poll said 57 per cent of Americans wanted her to be the next president. With the exception of a handful of former generals, such as Dwight Eisenhower or Colin Powell, retired public figures don’t sustain numbers like this. “There aren’t many of us who doubt she’s running,” a long-time Clinton friend and fundraiser told me. “Managing the suspense is all part of the game.” An official announcement would be highly unlikely before early 2015.

Second, the US public has given up on Washington. Compared with Capitol Hill’s grim-faced fiscal pontificators, the early White House jockeying makes for entertaining viewing. Capitol Hill’s approval ratings barely clear double digits. Whether it is the ongoing sequestration, another looming tussle over the debt ceiling, or the routine failure to pass a budget, lawmakers are stuck on a fiscal merry-go-round. With the exception of immigration reform, which Washington insiders give a roughly 50:50 chance of succeeding, few expect the 113th Congress to be any more productive than the last. If politics is treated as a joke by many Americans, Congress is the shaggy dog story that will never reach a punch line.

Finally, Mr Obama himself is tacitly supporting Mrs Clinton’s ambitions. From their unique “exit” interview – no US president has ever done this for an outgoing official – to the dinner the Obamas hosted for the Clintons on March 1, the most fascinating relationship in US politics is entering its next chapter. No one knows whether Mrs Clinton imposed conditions when she accepted Mr Obama’s offer of secretary of state in November 2008. But as the two most shrewd calculators in US politics, neither will have misread the other. Friends characterise their weekly Oval Office meetings as correct but without warmth. They also describe Mrs Clinton as having often had to grit her teeth during her time in Foggy Bottom. The White House routinely buried, smothered or ignored State Department initiatives in the last four years. “She is a total professional – I never heard a word of complaint,” said a senior official who also resigned in January.

Nor is any complaint likely to appear in her memoirs (a crazy guess: they will be published in late 2014). People in the Clinton universe believe Mr Obama is deeply indebted to Mrs Clinton for her hard work and loyalty. She did indeed clock up a record 330,000 air miles in the job. But presidents never recognise debts. They only look to their interests. Like most second-term presidents, the fate of Mr Obama’s legacy will loom as the clock runs down. Helping secure a “third-term” successor will be essential. He may even have half an eye beyond that.