股市大高开 套死一大批

转的Will Cheap Money Help?

It's uncertain how effective the cuts will be. Unlike those in other countries, Chinese consumers are not highly leveraged. Credit-card use is almost nonexistent, although debit cards are popular. Even most auto purchases are made in cash. Similarly, most home buyers put down more than the 20% required downpayment for mortgages, and outright defaults are rare. "The hope will be that this move will trigger more buying interest for homes, as well as support investment, both private as well as the coming wave of public projects," Standard Chartered Bank economist Stephen Green wrote in a note to clients. "But to be honest, rate policy in this environment is a marginal factor—businesses think about possible returns on investments, and households will look at house price prospects."

Whether cheaper money will induce banks to increase their loan books is an open question. Tens of thousands of Chinese manufacturers have gone out of business in recent months, leaving unpaid wages and supplier bills. Property developers are extremely cash-strapped in the face of a dramatic drop in housing turnover, and banks are cautious about extending new loans when they anticipate more defaults because of the economic slowdown.

China's economic outlook has deteriorated rapidly in recent weeks. In midsummer, only pessimists expected China's GDP growth to slow next year to 8%, a level necessary to ensure the absorption of new labor entrants into the workforce. Anything below this could—by Chinese economic standards—be considered a recession. Now economists are following one another with economic downgrades. On Oct. 31, UBS issued a growth forecast for next year of 7.5% (down from 8%). Economists believe about three percentage points of this growth will come from stimulus packages

这次大风波肯定会成为历史的焦点，一定得好好琢磨啊……

China Slashes Rates By Most Since Asian Fincl Crisis 2008年11月27日08:11
China's central bank slashed borrowing costs by the biggest margin in a decade, in a strong signal that government efforts to support the economy didn't end with the announcement of a massive stimulus plan just over two weeks ago.

The move, announced Wednesday, brings the benchmark one-year lending rate down by 1.08 percentage points to 5.58%, with the benchmark one-year deposit rate cut by the same margin to 2.52%, the People's Bank of China said in a statement.

The last cut of such magnitude was when the central bank slashed the benchmark lending rate by 1.44 percentage points in October 1997, during the Asian financial crisis. (Interest rates in China are traditionally divisible by nine.)

At the same time, banking regulators are also moving to shore up Chinese lenders, urging banks to step up provisions against losses and paving the way for a deposit-insurance program to be set up by next year.

The combination of policy moves reinforce the extent of official concern about the deteriorating global economy's effects on China, as well as authorities' determination to restore confidence in the nation's economy among investors, consumers and business.

'Confidence is easily lost and really difficult to gain back, which I think they learned from watching the U.S. tumble,' said Ken Peng, an economist with Citigroup. With local stock markets continuing to weaken even after China's Nov. 9 announcement of a CNY4 trillion ($586 billion) stimulus program, he said, 'I think they realize they needed more immediate action.'

The rate cut is the central bank's fourth since September, moves that together will bring the benchmark lending rate down by a total of 1.89 percentage points. The central bank on Wednesday also trimmed reserve requirements for banks, freeing up more cash for lending. It said the latest changes are intended to 'ensure an ample supply of liquidity in the banking system, encourage stable growth in lending, and make use of the positive role of monetary policy in supporting economic growth.'

Separately, the China Banking Regulatory Commission is urging lenders to voluntarily raise their capital adequacy ratios to 10% by the end of the year, up from the 8% that they are required by law to maintain. The recommendation is 'aimed at encouraging banks to set aside more provisions to cope with the financial crisis,' a commission official, who asked not to be named, said Wednesday.

At the same time, a long-planned measure to insure bank deposits is moving toward implementation. Zhang Jianhua, who heads the central bank's research bureau, told a financial forum Wednesday that the plan has been submitted to the State Council, China's cabinet, and will likely be rolled out next year.Amid a wave of bank failures globally, many other governments have in recent weeks expanded their guarantees on bank deposits. The finances of China's banks haven't been pressured in the same way, and they remain profitable. Government backing has also never really been in question since most banks are state-owned.

While the momentum of China's expansion remains rapid compared to most other major economies - growth was 9% in the third quarter - the situation has taken a clear turn for the worse since the central bank's initial rate cut in September. Confidence in the housing market has collapsed, layoffs at export factories are mounting and key industrial sectors like steel and electricity are contracting. Policymakers have said they think the economic situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, and are focused on preventing a dire outcome.

China's financial markets are also feeling the pain: stock prices and real-estate purchases have collapsed, while strains have also begun to appear in China's once-flush interbank money market.
'If our response is not good, these negative effects could spread and expand, and affect China's economic and financial stability,' deputy central bank governor Yi Gang wrote in an essay published last week. 'Therefore we must pay great attention to potential risks and take effective measures to resolve them.'

In subsequent comments, Yi also said one of the key risks now is the prospect of deflation, or persistent declines in prices. Deflation is worrisome in an economic downturn because it increases the real costs of borrowing and encourages consumers and businesses to put off spending.

While prices in China remain above their levels last year, the momentum has clearly turned downward. China's consumer price index was up 4% from a year earlier in October, but has fallen for the last three months, albeit by small margins. Much of that is due to the collapse in global prices for energy and raw materials, which shows up more clearly in other measures. China's corporate goods price index, a measure of input costs for businesses, dropped 2.7% in October from September.

Andrew Batson

“物价持续下滑会增加实际借贷成本”和“增加实际借贷成本会使物价持续下滑”这两个命题我想并不矛盾

关键是，作者想表达哪一个？

总需求减少，并非只受货币因素影响。

紧缩货币，未必可以显著抑制总需求，扩张货币，也未必可以显著刺激总需求。

如果货币政策成为一种信号，效果可能更受影响。

中国的股市还不是理性的市场

并不是光靠降息或者其他的措施就能抚平这种创伤

降息的主要目的还是在于帮助中小企业过冬，增加货币供给，降低企业融资成本

对实体经济的发展还是有帮助的

至于股市，关键在于信心，这种都不进市的观望态度是阻碍股市逆转的最大障碍

必须要下一副猛药才行，比如平准基金，或者股指期货，再或者创业板.

中小企业难获得银行贷款，主要因为利率吗？