遠洋地產MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCHSINO-OCEAN LAND (3377.HK): IN POLE POSITION DESPITE STRONG HEADWINDS: INITIATING AT OVERWEIGHT - December 02, 2008 GMT (34 pgs/ 318 kb)Coral Ching  +852 2239 1735  Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Derek Kwong  +852 2848 7221Angus Chan  +852 2848 5259Initiating coverage with Overweight rating and HK$3.62 price target: As a leading property developer in the Bohai Rim with a solid track record, a household brand name, and a strong parent, Sino-Ocean can capitalize on the turbulent market conditions, we believe, and strengthen its foothold in Beijing and surrounding regions. We initiate coverage on Sino-Ocean with an Overweight rating and a 12-month target price of HK$3.62, based on a 40% discount to our 12-month forward NAV estimate of HK$6.04.Emerging as victor despite headwinds: Amid the industry headwinds, Sino-Ocean has significantly raised its market share in Beijing this year. We estimate that the company will average over 5% market share in Beijing in 2008, compared with less than 3% last year. This strong execution ability should enable the company to achieve similar feats in other Bohai Rim markets.Constructive valuation support: We believe the market has been overly bearish on the company's Beijing exposure, and Sino-Ocean has clearly lifted its game post-Olympics to shore up property sales. The stock is currently trading at a 52% discount to our 12-month forward NAV estimate and 8x 2009e earnings.Balance sheet flexibility and parental advantage: We estimate net gearing at 52% with cash-on-hand of Rmb6 billion at the end of 2008. Sino-Ocean belongs to the rare breed of companies that have been able to secure bank financing in Hong Kong despite the tight credit market conditions.Key risks: Slowdown in economic growth, prolonged lack of confidence of potential homebuyers, and policy changes appear to be key challenges for Sino-Ocean.Stock Rating: OverweightIndustry View: In-LineModelWare EPS actual: (Dec 2007) CNY 0.52ModelWare EPS estimate: (Dec 2008) CNY 0.30; (Dec 2009) CNY 0.31; (Dec 2010) CNY 0.38Consensus EPS actual: (Dec 2007) CNY 0.48Consensus EPS estimate: (Dec 2008) CNY 0.28; (Dec 2009) CNY 0.31; (Dec 2010) CNY 0.39Share Price: HKD 2.90 (Dec 2, 2008)Target Price: HKD 3.62Market Cap (mm): CNY 11,544END OF RESEARCH ABSTRACT   

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