目录
1. 会议议程 .................................................................................................................................5
Agenda
2. 政策“保八”解近忧................................................................................................................. 11
哈继铭中金公司研究部，董事总经理
China’s Macroeconomic Outlook
HA Jiming, Managing Director, CICC Research
3. 金融风暴席卷全球，世界经济同步衰退.............................................................................32
沈建光中金公司研究部，副总经理
Global Economy: Deep Recession Unavoidable Under Financial Crisis
SHEN Jianguang, Vice President, CICC Research
4. A股探底之旅－控制仓位，兼顾行业................................................................................56
高挺 中金公司研究部，副总经理
Where are A-shares Headed? A tricky balance between earning pressure and policy
expectations
GAO Ting, Vice President, CICC Research
5. 2009 海外市场策略 - 危中有“机” - 熊市中后期“再通胀”下的投资机会...................76
侯振海中金公司研究部，高级经理
Opportunity in Crisis - 2009 Investment Outlooks in Late Bear Market and Reflation
HOU Zhenhai, Senior Associate, CICC Research
6. 主持人 ...................................................................................................................................95
邱劲 中金公司研究部主管，董事总经理
Chairperson
QIU Jin, Manager Director, Head of CICC Research
7. L型，U型还是W型？...........................................................................................................96
毛军华中金公司研究部，副总经理
L Shape, U Shape, or W Shape?
MAO Junhua, Vice President, CICC Research
8. 保险业 2009 年投资策略，低利率的挑战.........................................................................117
周光 中金公司研究部，副总经理
The Challenge of Low Interest Rates
ZHOU Guang, Vice President, CICC Research
中金2009 投资策略年会
- 2 -
9. 房地产行业09 年度策略.....................................................................................................144
白宏炜中金公司研究部，副总经理
2009 Investment Strategy for Real Estate Sector
BAI Hongwei, Vice President, CICC Research
10. 需求增速下行趋势中的投资机会 – 零售、服装及可选消费品2009 年策略报告.......157
郭海燕中金公司研究部，副总经理
Seeking Investment Opportunities amidst Slowing Demand Growth – Investment
Strategy on Retail, Apparel and Consumer Discretionary Sector
GUO Haiyan, Vice President, CICC Research
11. 2009 年医药、食品饮料与农业投资策略..........................................................................177
袁霏阳中金公司研究部，副总经理
Pharmaceutical, Food & Beverage and Agriculture Sector Investment Strategy
YUAN Feiyang, Vice President, CICC Research
12. 2009 中国能源行业投资策略..............................................................................................201
张金涛中金公司研究部，副总经理
2009 Energy Sector Investment Strategy
ZHANG Jintao, Vice President, CICC Research
13. 2009 年基建拉动下的原材料行业......................................................................................224
罗炜 中金公司研究部，副总经理
2009 Strategy for Basic Materials under Fiscal Stimulus
LUO Wei, Vice President, CICC Research
14. 化工行业 2009 年投资策略，防御中寻找反弹机会.........................................................243
时雪松中金公司研究部，高级经理
Defense in Downcycle
SHI Xuesong, Senior Associate, CICC Research
15. 09 年机械行业投资策略......................................................................................................254
罗晓春中金公司研究部，高级经理
Investment Strategy Of Machinery Industry In 2009
LUO Xiaochun, Senior Associate, CICC Research
16. 防御为上－09 年交通运输板块展望..................................................................................269
陶薇 中金公司研究部，副总经理
Focus on Defensiveness in the Down Cycle – 2009 Transportation Sector Outlook

17. 不确定性达到顶点...............................................................................................................295
陈昊飞中金公司研究部，副总经理
Uncertainty Brought by Restructuring Reaches its Peak
CHEN Haofei, Vice President, CICC Research
18. 传媒行业 2009 年投资策略，防御为先，价值和主题投资并重.....................................307
金宇 中金公司研究部，副总经理
Y2009’s Investment Strategy: Build A Portfolio: Defensive First, Thematic Second
JIN Yu, Vice President, CICC Research
19. 楼市走势与政策走向，当前房地产业发展值得关注的几个问题...................................329
顾云昌中国房地产及住宅研究会，副会长
Few Problems Necessary to Attend in Real Estate Industry
GU Yunchang, Vice-chairman, China Real Estate And Housing Research Association
20. 工程机械行业2008 年前十个月经济运行情况及09 年预测...........................................334
韩学松中国工程机械工业协会，理事长
The Economical Operation Situation of Construction Machinery Industry in First Ten
Months 2008 and the Prospect of That in 2009
HAN Xuesong, Chairman, China Construction Machinery Association
21. 2008 年电力供求和电价政策分析及2009 年展望............................................................347
黄少中电监会价格与财务监管部，副主任
Electricity Demand-Supply and Tariff Policy: 2008 Analysis and 2009 Prospects
HUANG Shaozhong, Deputy Director General of Regulatory Commission of

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-12-14 6:48:37编辑过]