在对数据进行协整检验后有如下结果,通过这个结果协整方程是什么样的?Date: 12/26/08 Time: 21:28
Sample (adjusted): 1980 2006
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend (restricted)
Series: LNGDP LNMT LNSY LNTRQ
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.844916 110.0035 63.87610 0.0000
At most 1 * 0.638506 59.68128 42.91525 0.0005
At most 2 * 0.606674 32.20854 25.87211 0.0071
At most 3 0.228789 7.014419 12.51798 0.3430
Trace test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.844916 50.32224 32.11832 0.0001
At most 1 * 0.638506 27.47274 25.82321 0.0301
At most 2 * 0.606674 25.19412 19.38704 0.0064
At most 3 0.228789 7.014419 12.51798 0.3430
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
LNGDP LNMT LNSY LNTRQ @TREND(79)
0.836917 -4.530497 -15.19111 7.794025 0.704237
7.463696 -8.849595 -26.29937 21.88427 -0.405635
-18.70926 3.264738 37.00523 -21.25113 1.724348
3.653176 -4.633827 4.824603 4.111337 -0.694618
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(LNGDP) 0.009279 -0.004191 0.019909 -0.015784
D(LNMT) 0.039209 0.013070 0.010586 -0.000491
D(LNSY) 0.030541 -0.015088 -0.013269 -0.005639
D(LNTRQ) 0.024686 -0.015763 0.007161 0.008359
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 223.1659
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
LNGDP LNMT LNSY LNTRQ @TREND(79)
1.000000 -5.413318 -18.15127 9.312783 0.841466
(1.64543) (2.59881) (1.86728) (0.10624)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(LNGDP) 0.007766
(0.00772)
D(LNMT) 0.032814
(0.00495)
D(LNSY) 0.025561
(0.00565)
D(LNTRQ) 0.020660
(0.00545)
2 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 236.9023
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
LNGDP LNMT LNSY LNTRQ @TREND(79)
1.000000 0.000000 0.578840 1.142563 -0.305589
(0.97840) (0.70392) (0.03399)
0.000000 1.000000 3.460006 -1.509282 -0.211895
(0.62540) (0.44996) (0.02173)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(LNGDP) -0.023514 -0.004951
(0.06891) (0.09122)
D(LNMT) 0.130363 -0.293297
(0.03894) (0.05155)
D(LNSY) -0.087054 -0.004843
(0.04426) (0.05859)
D(LNTRQ) -0.096987 0.027654
(0.04154) (0.05499)
3 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 249.4994
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
LNGDP LNMT LNSY LNTRQ @TREND(79)
1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.062518 -0.253292
(0.29666) (0.01332)
0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 -1.987749 0.100709
(0.48566) (0.02181)
0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.138285 -0.090348
(0.19278) (0.00866)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(LNGDP) -0.396006 0.060048 0.706012
(0.16293) (0.08457) (0.38690)
D(LNMT) -0.067688 -0.258738 -0.547623
(0.09359) (0.04858) (0.22225)
D(LNSY) 0.161198 -0.048162 -0.558165
(0.10348) (0.05371) (0.24572)
D(LNTRQ) -0.230973 0.051034 0.304555
(0.10696) (0.05552) (0.25400)
谢谢各位大侠了