不，那不是个印刷错误。中国的经济增长数据未必全然可信，但我们也没有什么明显的理由来怀疑那个经过修正的统计结果——2007年这个全球第三大经济体增长了13%。中国经济无疑一直处于危险的过热增长之中。去年中国政府试图给兴奋的房地产市场减速时，刹车踩得过狠了一些。而通过切断对激励机制的依赖、执行劳动力及环保标准来提升工厂价值链位置的努力，虽然值得称赞，但也产生了事与愿违的影响。再加上出口市场崩溃，所造成的失业局势比中国政府所能预想的更加严峻。

对于2009年，人们关心的是中国能否实现8%的经济增长率。这个神奇的数字被认为是确保社会稳定的必要条件。但这个命题不对。只要中国的统计学家这么说，中国就会实现8%的增长率。即使人们在生活第一线感受到更低经济增长率带来的痛苦，仅仅一年的经济放缓是不太可能像有些人想像的那样引发民众骚乱的。中国人依然相信，政府有能力实现经济的长期强劲增长。除非经济多年大幅减速，否则充其量也只会出现一些孤立的骚乱事件。

更重要的问题是：如今中国要从哪里获得经济增长？巨额的经济刺激方案或许能重启建筑繁荣，但并不能保证人们会购买房产，除非他们认为价格已经触底。这可能意味着出现产能过剩和两度衰退。

中国这个世界工厂近年对欧美的消费狂热变得过于依赖，现在热潮结束了。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的斯蒂芬•罗奇(Stephen Roach)表示，出口占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的比重已经从1997年的20%增至40%。中国完美利用了由信贷刺激的巨大需求，现在将被迫寻找新的增长源泉。个人消费占GDP的比重一直呈结构性衰退。与一些人的幻想不同，仅占中国GDP三分之一的个人消费，不足以维持国内经济增长势头，更不可能替代美国的需求。

中国必须重新平衡其经济，这样人们就不必为了弥补医疗、教育和社保方面的严重不足而储蓄。中国老百姓，以及亚洲其它地区的老百姓一直过着量入为出的节俭生活，让美欧人得以寅吃卯粮大肆挥霍。中国在这个等式中的角色不会在旦夕间发生改变。但是，除非这一角色发生些许转变，否则中国近几年的超高速增长不可能持续下去——不管统计学家们怎么说。

Rebalancing the Chinese economy   英国《金融时报》社评

No, that was not a misprint. China's growth statistics are not always reliable. But there is no obvious reason to doubt revised statistics showing that the world's third biggest economy grew 13 per cent in 2007. Certainly, it has been dangerously overheating. When the government tried last year to slow down the ebullient property market, it applied the brake too hard. Laudable attempts to push factories up the value chain by weaning them off incentives and enforcing labour and environmental standards have also backfired. Coupled with the collapse of export markets, that has caused more unemployment than Beijing could have wished.

For this year, people want to know whether China will grow at 8 per cent, the magic number deemed necessary to ensure social stability. That is the wrong question. China will grow at 8 per cent if its statisticians say so. Even if the pain of lower growth is felt on the ground, one isolated year of slowdown is unlikely to spark the popular rebellion some imagine. China's population still believes its government can deliver strong growth in the long run. Only if there were a number of years of sharply lower growth are there likely to be more than isolated disturbances.

A bigger question is: where does Chinese growth now come from? The huge stimulus package may rev up the impressive construction boom, but there is no guarantee that people will buy property until they think prices have bottomed out. That could mean excess capacity and a double-dip slowdown.

The world's workshop has also grown far too dependent on a US and European spending binge that is now over. Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach says exports as a percentage of gross domestic product have risen from 20 per cent in 1997 to 40 per cent. It rode the huge, credit-fuelled demand surge beautifully. Now it will have to find other sources of growth. Personal consumption as a percentage of GDP has been in structural decline. At about one-third of GDP, that is not enough to sustain domestic momentum let alone credibly substitute for US demand, as some fantasise.

China must rebalance its economy, so that people stop saving to make up for appalling deficiencies in the provision of health, education and social security. People in China, and elsewhere in Asia, have lived beneath their means to enable people in the US and Europe to live beyond theirs. China's part of that equation is not going to change overnight. But unless it changes a bit, the hyper-growth of recent years will be unsustainable – whatever the statisticians say.

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-1-20 6:03:08编辑过]

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