股市1月份的表现通常预示全年的走势。目前的情况看起来不容乐观。过去的十年，1月份准确预示全年走势的情况出现了七次。

今年1月份，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数和标准普尔500指数双双下滑了近8%。上周二是美国总统就职日，当日股市暴跌了4%，是美国股市在总统就职日的最差表现，道指也自去年11月的熊市低点以来首次跌破8000点关口。有关银行的负面消息拖累了其他类股走低，第四财季业绩也大多令人失望。

管理44亿美元资产的特拉华州克里斯蒂娜银行与信托公司（Christiana Bank & Trust Co.）副总裁尼海姆(Thomas Nyheim)表示，难怪民众迟疑不愿入市，我们看到的基本都是负面消息。

如果这个月主要股指要实现持平（不提走高了），本周就得大幅上扬才行。目前来看，本月标准普尔500指数可能会打破1970年1月下滑7.7%的1月份最差纪录。

从以往来看，1月份走势通常预示着一年剩余时间的市场前景，虽然它并不是完美的预兆。过去的十年，1月份准确预示全年走势的情况出现了七次。

根据佛罗里达州的研究和投资顾问公司纳德•戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）自1950年以来的数据来看，如果标准普尔500指数在1月份走低，那么该指数接下来11个月平均下跌2.4%。如果标普指数1月走高，那么该指数全年余下时间则平均上涨12.3%。

在涨势方面，道指走势与此类似。根据纳德•戴维斯研究公司的数据，若道指1月走高，则余下时间平均上涨9.8%。若道指1月走低，则剩下11个月仅平均上涨1.6%。

新年伊始，随着退休金帐户资金流入股市，1月份股市通常会受到提振。尼海姆说，投资者会调整他们的资产配置，如果市场近期走强的话，他们就会向股市投入更多资金。

不过这个月倒是有不少客户打电话给尼海姆，要求将更多资金转移至债市，因为遭遇2008年底股市的暴跌后，这些投资者对股市感到紧张不安。

纳德•戴维斯研究公司的资深全球分析师克利索德(Ed Clissold)表示，年底奖金会在1月份带来一波股市投资，但去年有谁拿到奖金了？而且，即便市场走势不错的年份，1月份通常也是首次公开募股(IPO)的淡季，因此也没有什么新股上市吸引投资者。

共同基金的赎回潮导致股市资金外流，也使股市承压。据研究公司TrimTabs Investment Research估计，截至上周四，本月总计有107.6亿美元资金流出股市。除非这一势头突然逆转，否则1月份将连续第八个月出现股市资金外流。

加州投资公司300 North Capital LLC首席投资长坎帕尼亚(Richard Campagna)表示，上半个月，由于投资者期盼着总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)宣誓就职，因此出现了一段以不确定性和交易不活跃为特点的时期。这个因素带来了一段空白期，导致标准普尔500指数在金融类股拖累下走低。

目前为止，奥巴马政府还没有平定市场，尤其是金融类股。管理20亿美元资产的投资信托公司National Penn Investors Trust Co.高级股票经理莫里斯(Terry Morris)表示，包括我在内的每个人都认为股市会出现奥巴马蜜月式的走强，但我们却从未看到。

上周，英国政府可能被迫扩大金融救助计划的消息给金融类股带来了巨大冲击。资产管理公司道富银行(State Street Corp.)公布巨额浮亏更是打击了投资者信心。在总统就职当日，标准普尔500指数中金融类股下挫了16%。

目前标普500指数中，金融类股的比重为10.3%，低于2008年1月底的18.6%。目前标普500指数成份股，大约有四分之一的公司公布了第四财季业绩。其中大多数为金融公司，而且较之投资者在收益公布季之前已经很低的预期，这些公司的业绩表现似乎还要糟糕。

即便是去年表现强于类股的金融机构，它们的股价目前也在走低。莫里斯持有着富国银行(Wells Fargo)股票，该行股票一直承受压力，因为市场担心富国银行需要更多资本才能消化上个月收购的Wachovia。富国银行股价1月份下跌了46%，而去年全年才下滑了2.4%。

克里斯蒂娜银行与信托公司副总裁尼海姆表示，他在衰退中一直在买进短期高品质债券，并在为能够等待较长期回报的客户投资华特-迪士尼公司(Walt Disney Co.)和雅培制药(Abbott Laboratories)等公司。他说，我们也有许多年纪较大的客户，他们的投资期限较短。我听到一对夫妇说他们甚至不会买青香蕉。克里斯蒂娜银行与信托公司是National Penn Bancshares旗下子公司。

遭受打击的投资者可能会祈祷2003年的情况再次出现。当年道指和标普500指数在1月份双双走低，但却在接下来11个月飙升了大约30%。在走势逆转前，2002年也是熊市低点。坎帕尼亚说，或许2009年我会看到1月份股市走低但全年上扬的情况。

What the market does in January often foretells how U.S. stocks will perform during the rest of the year. It is looking rough so far.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor's 500-stock index are down just shy of 8% in January. Last Tuesday's nose dive of 4%, the worst Inauguration Day showing ever, left the Dow below 8000 for the first time since its November bear-market lows. Bad news about banks has pulled other sectors down, and fourth-quarter earnings have mostly been duds.

No wonder 'people are hesitant to get into this market,' said Thomas Nyheim, vice president at Christiana Bank & Trust Co. in Wilmington, Del., with $4.4 billion under management. 'We've seen mostly negative signals.'

It will take a huge rally this week for major indexes to break even, let alone gain ground, for the full month. For now, the S&P 500 is on track to dethrone its worst January on record when it fell 7.7% in 1970.

Historically, January often augurs how the rest of the year will go, although this is hardly a perfect portent. Over the past 10 years, January correctly predicted the future seven times.

When the S&P falls in January, the index loses an average of 2.4% in the next 11 months, according to data going back to 1950 from Ned Davis Research, a Venice, Fla., research firm and investment adviser. When the S&P rises, the index posts an average gain of 12.3% throughout the rest of the year.

The Dow's pattern is similar when it comes to gains. A positive January led to an average increase of 9.8% over the rest of the year, according to Ned Davis Research. A negative January led to gains that averaged just 1.6%.

January usually gets a boost from money flowing into retirement accounts as the new year begins. Investors tweak their asset allocations, and if the market has been strong recently, they might put more money into stocks, said Mr. Nyheim.

This month, though, many clients have called to ask Mr. Nyheim about moving more money into bonds, because they are uncomfortable with stocks after the market plunges of late 2008.

Year-end bonuses can translate into a flurry of stock investments in January, said Ed Clissold, senior global analyst at Ned Davis Research. But 'who got a bonus last year?' he said. In addition, January tends to be a weak month for initial public offerings even when the market is doing well, so there is little supply of new shares to tempt investors.

It doesn't help that mutual-fund redemptions are taking wind out of the stock market. As of last Thursday, $10.76 billion had flowed out of stock funds this month, according to an estimate from TrimTabs Investment Research. Unless the tide suddenly reverses, January will be the eighth consecutive month of outflows from stock funds.

In the first half of the month, as investors anticipated the inauguration of President Barack Obama, there was 'a window of uncertainty and inaction,' said Richard Campagna, chief investment officer at 300 North Capital LLC in Pasadena, Calif. 'It created a void and sent the S&P 500 lower, driven by the financials.'

So far, the Obama administration hasn't calmed the market, especially financial stocks. 'Everyone, including me, thought there would be an Obama honeymoon market run, and we never saw that,' said Terry Morris, senior equity manager at National Penn Investors Trust Co., of Wyomissing, Pa., with $2 billion under management.

Last week, financial stocks were overwhelmed by news that the U.K. government would have to expand its financial-rescue plan. A pile of unrealized losses at asset manager State Street Corp. was yet another blow to investor confidence. On Inauguration Day, the financial sector of the S&P 500 lost 16% of its value.

Financials now make up 10.3% of the S&P 500, down from 18.6% at the end of January 2008. About a quarter of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported fourth-quarter earnings so far. Most have been financials, and they have largely looked even worse than the low expectations investors had heading into earnings season.

Even shares of financial institutions that outperformed their peers last year are heading south. Mr. Morris holds Wells Fargo, which has been walloped by fears it will need more capital to absorb Wachovia, which was acquired by the San Francisco bank last month. Wells Fargo is down 46% in January, compared with a 2.4% decline for all of 2008.

Amid recession, Mr. Nyheim, the vice president at Christiana, a unit of National Penn Bancshares, said he has been buying short-term, high-quality bonds and is investing in companies such as Walt Disney and Abbott Laboratories for clients who can wait longer for returns. 'We have a lot of older clients, with a shorter time horizon,' he said. 'I have heard a couple say they don't even buy green bananas.'

Battered investors may want to pray for a reprise of 2003. After falling in January, the Dow and S&P 500 soared about 30% over the next 11 months. That turnaround also followed the bear-market lows of 2002. 'I could see a down January, but an up year' in 2009, Mr. Campagna said.

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