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Energy

能源

When the wind blows

等风来

Renewable power is good. More renewable power is not always better

再生能源发电前景广阔，但并不是越多越好。

Nov 28th 2015 | From the print edition

ON A BREEZY, sunny day in north-east Germany it seems as though the world is running on renewable energy. Near Altentreptow 50-odd giant wind turbines, the tallest 200 metres high, spin above a potato field, making a gentle swishing sound. The hum from the base of each turbine is the sound of electricity being generated, much of it bound for Berlin. The view from the wind farm, across flat fields, is of another wind farm.

在德国东北部一个阳光和煦、凉风习习的日子里，世界正在使用着可再生能源。在旧特普雷托附近有50多架最高达200米的大型风机坐落在马铃薯田地中，发出嗖嗖转动的声音。每个风机发出的声音都代表着电力的产生，多数电力供给柏林。跨过一片平坦区域，就能看到又是另一片风电场。

Sadly, this is not how the world’s power is generated. In truth, the view from Altentreptow does not even properly reflect how Germany’s power is generated. The battle to drive carbon dioxide out of the world energy system, which accounts for about two-thirds of human greenhouse-gas emissions, has seen some heartening and visible advances. But clean energy is still being soundly thrashed by the dirty sort.

旧特普雷托并不能代表世界发电情况，事实上甚至不能反映德国发电情况。世界能源系统的二氧化碳排放量占人类总排放量的三分之二，目前降低能源系统二氧化碳排放量的斗争已经取得了可喜的进步。但相比传统能源，清洁能源差距明显。

Even as the wind turbines and solar panels began to spread across the fields of Europe, an ancient black fuel was making a comeback (see chart). In 2000 the world’s coal-fired power stations were capable of producing 1,132 gigawatts of electricity between them, according to Enerdata, a Paris-based research firm. By 2014 so many new power stations had been built that they could put out 1,980 gigawatts. Coal, which is about twice as polluting as natural gas, now supplies 41% of the world’s electricity and 30% of its overall energy needs.

即使风机和太阳能板在欧洲大陆广泛被应用，古老的黑色燃料（煤）的使用却也在回升（如图）。巴黎一家研究机构Enerdata表示，2000年世界燃煤发电站供应1132千兆瓦，到2014年，由于新发电站不断投产，发电量增至1980千兆瓦。煤的污染程度是天然气的两倍，目前却占世界电力需求的40%和全部能量需求的31%。

The biggest single cause of the fossil-fuel boom is China, which is examined in the next article. But rich Western countries are more culpable than they think. They have transformed their rural landscapes with wind farms and pushed up electricity prices for consumers, yet have managed to drive surprisingly little carbon out of the energy system. The record would look even worse if Western countries had not simultaneously exported much of their heavy industry, and thus much of their pollution, to China and other emerging countries.

化石燃料激增的主要原因就是中国，将在下一篇文章详细阐述。但是西方国家也比他们自认为的要对此承担更多责任。西方国家通过在田地修建风电场，提高电价，虽然确实使得能源系统二氧化碳排放量小幅下降，但实际上如果他们不将污染程度严重的重工业转移到中国和其他新兴国家，他们的二氧化碳排放量数值将非常高。

The large wind farm near Altentreptow is one of hundreds in Germany. Helped by some big storms, these turbines produced 41,000 gigawatt-hours of electricity in the first half of this year, 15% of Germany’s total electricity output. Add hydro-electric power stations, solar farms and biomass, and the country derived 35% of its electricity from renewable sources. Germany has become a world leader in green power, but also sa warning about what can go wrong.

旧特普雷托的大型风电场只是德国的一个缩影。借助于大风，今年上半年这些风机产生41000千兆瓦时电力，占德国全部电力输出的15%。再加上水力发电站、太阳能发电场和生物质能，德国利用可再生能源产生的电力占全部电力的35%。德国已经成为世界绿色能源的领导者，也起到了错误案例的警示作用。

Wind and sunshine have two big drawbacks as sources of power. First, they are erratic. The sun shines weakly in winter when it shines at all, and the wind can drop. On January 20th this year the output from all of Germany’s solar and wind farms peaked at just over 2.5 gigawatts—a small proportion of the 77 gigawatts Germany produced that day. A few months later, during a sunny, windy spell in early June, the combined wind and solar output jumped to 42 gigawatts.

风能和太阳能有两个致命的缺陷，其一，它们是不稳定的。冬季阳光微弱，风力也降低，今年1月20日，德国太阳能和风能输出最高值仅多与2.5千兆瓦，只占德国当天发电量77千兆瓦的一小部分。几个月前阳光充足、风力较大的六月，一天的风能和太阳能发电量增至42千兆瓦。

The second problem with wind and solar energy, oddly, is that it is free. Wind turbines and solar panels are not free, of course. Although the cost of solar photovoltaic panels has plunged in the past few years, largely because Germany bought so many, wind and solar farms still tend to produce more expensive electricity than coal or gas power stations on a “levelised cost” basis, which includes the expense of building them. But once a wind or solar farm is up, the marginal cost of its power output is close to zero.

其二，虽然风能和太阳能是免费的，但风机和太阳能板却不是免费的。在过去的几年里，由于德国购买量巨大，太阳能面板的成本已经大幅下跌，但基于平摊成本包括建设费用在内，风电场和太阳能电场仍比燃煤或天然气发电站成本高。可一旦风电场和太阳能电场建设完工，发电的边际成本将趋近于零。

The problem lies with the effect of renewables on energy markets. Because their power is free at the margin, green-power producers offer it for next to nothing in wholesale markets (they will go on to make money from subsidies, known as feed-in tariffs). Nuclear power stations also enter low bids. The next-lowest bids tend to come from power stations burning lignite coal—a cheap but especially dirty fuel. They are followed by the power stations burning hard coal, then the gas-fired power stations. The energy companies start by accepting the lowest bids. When they have filled the day’s requirements, they pay all successful bidders the highest price required to clear the market.

可再生能源在能源市场的效果是问题的关键。由于它们的边际成本为零，绿色能源生产商也没有销售市场（他们将继续从称之为入网电价的补贴中获取利益）。核能发电站同样低价出售。接下来价低者是燃烧肮脏且便宜的褐煤发电站，再者便是燃烧无烟煤，最后便是天然气发电站。能源公司以最低价投标开始，当满足当天需求时，他们以最高价支付给所有中标者，同时结标。

The surge of solar and wind power is pushing down the clearing price and bending Germany’s energy market out of shape. Power stations burning natural gas increasingly find no takers for their electricity, so they sit idle. Meanwhile the cheap, carboniferous lignite power stations burn on (see chart). Coal-fired power capacity has actually increased in the past few years. Coal is likely to become even more important to Germany’s energy supply in future because the government is committed to phasing out nuclear power by 2022.

太阳能和风能的大量涌现使得结标价下跌，严重影响了德国能源市场。天然气发电站逐渐失去市场，导致设备搁置。与此同时，价格便宜的褐煤发电站能够保持市场占有率，在过去几年里燃煤发电站的确有所增加。因为政府承诺在2022年前淘汰核电站，因此煤或将成为德国未来电力的主要来源。

One of Germany’s biggest coal-fired power stations, Jänschwalde, sits near the border with Poland. Built in the 1980s, it burns 80,000 tonnes of lignite a day and can put out three gigawatts of power. Jänschwalde has also become ever more flexible, ramping up and down speedily as the weather changes. Lignite is proving to be an excellent partner for erratic wind and solar power, argues Olaf Adermann of Vattenfall, the firm that owns Jänschwalde. Sadly for the environment, he is right.

位于德国波兰边境的最大的燃煤发电站延施瓦尔德在20世纪80年代建成，每天燃烧8万吨褐煤产生3千兆瓦电力。延施瓦尔德也可以根据天气变化提高或降低负荷。延施瓦尔德发电站隶属Vattenfall公司，该公司Olaf Adermann称由于风能和太阳能稳定性较差，褐煤能与风能和太阳能发电互补。他的说法固然正确，但这对环境却是不利的。

Earlier this year a shamefaced German government moved to regulate lignite-burning power stations out of existence, but after thousands of miners protested in Berlin, it dropped that policy. The country appears to be stuck with coal. It is likely to miss its self-imposed target for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, reckons McKinsey, a consultancy. And because of generous feed-in tariffs for renewables that are guaranteed for 20 years, consumers in Germany are paying high prices for their not especially clean power. In the first half of this year households there paid