[推荐]美化学品协会CMAI: 全球经济能源分析 4月刊

THE WORLD ECONOMY
•  The most severe economic contraction since the 1930s still continues, but at
a decelerating rate.  The good news is that this is clearly not the recurrence
of the Great Depression.
•   An immense international effort (led by the U.S. and China and joined by
most major countries)  is  taking place  to  restore growth.   With  the proper
monetary and fscal policies in place, success should be assured.
 •   Our main forecast with a two to one probability stipulates a cycle trough in
the 3rd quarter of 2009 and the achievement of a new all time high in world
GDP by the 2nd quarter of 2011.  A more pessimistic alternate scenario with
a one in three probability would extend these dates by about one year.

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-5-13 23:00:33编辑过]