碳排放帝国

             May 14, 2009 NYTIMES By PAUL KRUGMAN  Op-Ed Columnist

I have seen the future, and it won’t work.

我已经看到未来的情形了，但是，那行不通。

These should be hopeful times for environmentalists. Junk science no longer rules in Washington. President Obama has spoken forcefully about the need to take action on climate change; the people I talk to are increasingly optimistic that Congress will soon establish a cap-and-trade system that limits emissions of greenhouse gases, with the limits growing steadily tighter over time. And once America acts, we can expect much of the world to follow our lead.

对于环保人士来说，最近这些日子应该是充满希望的时光。在华盛顿，垃圾科学已经失去了主导地位。奥巴马总统发表了强有力的演讲，强调应该采取行动应对气候的变化；和我聊过的人越来越乐观，他们相信，国会不久将确立，旨在限制温室气体排放的“总量管制和交易”制度（cap-and-trade），而且随着时间的推移，排放限制会变得日益严苛。可以预期的是，一旦美国采取行动，世界上许多国家将仿效美国的做法。

But that still leaves the problem of China, where I have been for most of the last week.

但是，这种预期依然没有考虑到中国的问题，我上周基本是在那里度过的。

Like every visitor to China, I was awed by the scale of the country’s development. Even the annoying aspects — much of my time was spent viewing the Great Wall of Traffic — are byproducts of the nation’s economic success.

同每一位造访中国的人士一样，这个国家的发展规模令我产生敬畏之感。甚至许多恼人的方面——我许多时间都是在观看“交通长城”中度过的——也是中国经济成功的副产品。

But China cannot continue along its current path because the planet can’t handle the strain.

然而，中国不能继续遵循当前的发展路径，原因在于，这个星球无法承受如此重荷。

The scientific consensus on prospects for global warming has become much more pessimistic over the last few years. Indeed, the latest projections from reputable climate scientists border on the apocalyptic. Why? Because the rate at which greenhouse gas emissions are rising is matching or exceeding the worst-case scenarios.

过去的几年，对于全球变暖的前景，科学界已经有了许多悲观的共识。实际上，一些著名的气候科学家所做的最新预测，近乎是一副世界末日的景象。为什么？因为温室气体排放增长的速度，正在接近，甚或超过最坏的情况。

And the growth of emissions from China — already the world’s largest producer of carbon dioxide — is one main reason for this new pessimism.

而源自中国的排放物增长——它已经是世界上最大的二氧化碳制造者——是导致这种新的悲观情绪的主要原因。

China’s emissions, which come largely from its coal-burning electricity plants, doubled between 1996 and 2006. That was a much faster pace of growth than in the previous decade. And the trend seems set to continue: In January, China announced that it plans to continue its reliance on coal as its main energy source and that to feed its economic growth it will increase coal production 30 percent by 2015. That’s a decision that, all by itself, will swamp any emission reductions elsewhere.

1996年至2006年，中国的排放物——主要源自燃煤的发电厂——翻了一番。这是一种比之前的10年快得多的增长速度。而且这样的趋势似乎会依然延续：1月份，中国宣布，它将延续将煤作为主要能源的政策；为了支撑它的经济增长，中国计划到2015年时，将煤产量增加30%。这项决定自身，将吞噬世界上其他国家在减排方面取得的任何成效。

So what is to be done about the China problem?

那么，针对中国的问题，能采取什么措施呢？

 version of this article appeared in print on May 15, 2009, on page A39 of the New York edition.

[此贴子已经被作者于2009-5-27 1:28:26编辑过]