20090518-UBS

China Passenger Vehicles (英文-114页)

Where is demand coming from?

Growth is back, but demand is changing

Auto demand in China’s less-developed areas is catching up with the coastal regions and the government is implementing plans on auto consumption, domestic vehicle brand development, and industry consolidation. As a result, product mix is shifting and lower-priced, small cars could outperform in the medium term. Auto demand is strong, but automakers are not positioned equally to capture growth, in our view.

UBS proprietary tools to identify the growth markets and products

We introduce the UBS demand model and UBS regional scorecards to assist investors in understanding China auto demand from a top-down and provincial level perspective. We also analyse monthly regional vehicle registration data for the past three years to identify those companies best positioned to capitalise on the shift in demand.

Prefer exposure to central and eastern regions; favour own brands

Our analysis suggests that the central and eastern regions and part of the western region will be the key growth areas in the medium term. We also prefer lower priced own-brand models as they should benefit from strong growth in low-end vehicle demand and government support.

Stock picks: Great Wall Motor and Denway Motors

We like Great Wall Motor for its product and geographical exposure. We also like Dongfeng Motor Group, but believe its share price has captured any short-term earnings upside. Denway Motors is not a major beneficiary of the structural demand shift identified in this report, but we upgrade our rating on the stock from Neutral to Buy due to the potential recovery in Guangdong auto demand. We maintain our Sell rating for FAW Car and Shanghai Automotive on valuation concerns.

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[此贴子已经被作者于2009-6-3 2:19:08编辑过]

20090518-UBS 中国乘用车 (112页) - 2楼的中文版

汽车需求源自何方？

重回“增”轨但需求结构已变

中国欠发达地区的汽车需求正在赶上沿海地区，而且政府正在执行刺激汽车消费、推动国产自主品牌发展和行业整合的规划。因此产品组合在发生变化，中期而言低价的小型轿车或将“跑赢”其它车种。目前汽车需求强劲，但我们认为各家汽车厂商藉此实现增长的实力有差异。

瑞银自有的分析工具筛选出增长市场和车型

我们采用瑞银的需求模型和瑞银区域评分表，协助投资者从省份的角度自上而下的理解中国汽车市场的需求。我们还分析了过去3年各地区月度汽车上牌数据，从而选出最受益于汽车需求转变的公司。

看好业务涉及华中和华东地区的公司；青睐自主品牌汽车

就中期而言，我们的分析表明华中、华东和部分西部地区将是主要增长地区。我们还看好自主品牌推出的低价车型，因为它们应将受益于低端车型需求的强劲增长以及政府支持。

个股选择： 长城汽车和骏威汽车

我们看好长城汽车，原因是公司的产品组合和业务的地域分布。我们还看好东风汽车集团，但认为目前股价已反映出短期利润上行。骏威汽车不是本报告所指需求结构性转变的主要受益方之一，但鉴于广东汽车需求有望回暖，我们把该股评级从“中性”升至“买入”。因估值问题，我们维持对一汽轿车和上海汽车的“卖出”评级。

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1. 20090522-莫尼塔-汽车行业报告：二季度成为决定重卡复苏程度的时间窗口
2. 20090506-莫尼塔-5月份汽车行业调研
3. 20090430-莫尼塔汽车行业报告-排量结构并非行业盈利水平的决定因素
4. 20090421-莫尼塔-汽车行业报告-中国与不同汽车消费阶段国家的比较  

全部是中文的

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[此贴子已经被作者于2009-6-3 2:19:42编辑过]

1. 20090522-中金公司-混合动力汽车电池主题 (中20页)
2. 2009年5月-中金公司-汽车行业有望转向全面复苏 (中文46页)
3. 20090515-CICC-Auto Monthly (英文18页)
4. 20090514-中金公司-汽车及零部件 (中文18页)
5. 20090416-中金公司-汽车及零部件信息 (中文18页)
6. 20090413-中金公司-汽车及汽车零部件 (中文16页)
   

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[此贴子已经被作者于2009-6-3 2:20:20编辑过]