source from:The Economist Espresso
Edging forward: the Fed meets
There is only an outside chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the end of the two-day meeting that begins today. Monetary-policy forecasts have bounced around this year as stockmarket woes, in February, and then Brexit, in June, shook traders’ confidence in the economy. American markets have now shrugged off these worries, and see a Fed rate rise this year as more likely than not. The labour market has gyrated, too: a dire jobs report for May was followed by much-improved numbers in June. On average, payrolls grew by 147,000 a month during the last quarter, easily enough to reduce slack in the labour market. The median annual pay rise is now 3.6%, according to the Atlanta Fed. Still, risks to the world economy abound —from Chinese shadow-banks to Donald Trump—and inflation remains too low. The Fed will proceed only cautiously.