全部版块 我的主页
论坛 经济学论坛 三区 马克思主义经济学
5799 18
2016-08-27

                   供求关系的深度剖析

                       于德浩

                      2016.8.26

商品的价格会随着供求关系变化,对此有两种理解。一是供求决定价格,这是现代西方主流经济学的观点;二是价值决定价格,供求只是影响价格,这是马克思劳动价值论的观点。一般老百姓对这两种观点兼而有之,比如,“这东西卖的人多了,就会越来越便宜。而想要的人多了,它就会越来越贵。”“这东西实际不值几个钱,你别看它现在贵,过段时间肯定会便宜下来。”

依我看,马克思的认识要更为深刻。我们现在看一看电脑液晶屏替代电子显像管显示器的商业过程。先说客观现象,液晶屏开始上市时价格很贵,比如5000元/台;而普通显示器1000元/台;此时新产品液晶屏销量很少。随后,越来越多的厂商开始生产,价格下降为3000元/台,销量开始增加。然后,更多的杂牌货大量上市,价格大幅下跌为1500元/台,销量开始大幅增加。最后,供货商数量继续增加,总产量达到饱和,价格开始稳定在800元/台,此时几乎每台电脑都是配备液晶屏,电子显像管被淘汰。

“供求决定价格”是这么解释。一开始,绝大部分人不喜欢新生事物-液晶屏,需求小,所以供应少,价格就很贵,正是“物以稀为贵”。随后,越来越多的人开始喜欢液晶屏,觉得确实比电子管的好,所以供应开始增加,价格开始降低。以此类推,等所有人都喜欢液晶屏时,需求最大到饱和,从而供应最大,价格最便宜,也就稳定在800元/台。

“价值决定价格”则是这么解释。一开始,研发费用高,付出的劳动量大,所以液晶屏的成本很高,价格就很昂贵。商品价格贵,人们的需求量自然就小。随后,生产工艺改进,劳动生产率提高,或者说研发费用基本都赚回来了,生产成本大幅降低,从而终端销售价格也就大幅下降。价格便宜了,人们需求量就大了。只要足够便宜,那么几乎每个人都可以买得起了。

如果一个人持“供求决定价格”,那么基本的商业策略就是,加大市场营销推广--忽悠消费者,“液晶屏真的好,虽然贵,但是超值。轻便,图像清晰,时髦……,你值得拥有。”

    “价值决定价格”的商业策略,就是加大研发投入,降低产品成本。“液晶屏现在不好卖的主要原因,是价格太贵,而不是消费者不喜欢。如果足够便宜,不喜欢也会“变成”喜欢。”

我之所以认同“价值决定价格”的观点,还有很重要的一点,就是现实可操作性高。想判断消费者是否“喜欢”的主观意愿是无章可循的,也许乔布斯可以引导时尚潮流,但有几个人可以成功模仿?其实,应该是“价格引导供求”而不是相反。人们先看到了商品的价格上涨,才认为“供小于求”。大部分“准商人”是先看到了高价格带来的高利润,才会转为该商品的生产者。

需求可以分为自然需求和货币需求。食物满足人的生存需求,这里是指自然需求。人们选择日常吃馒头而不是吃扒鸡,则是货币需求所限。自然需求,一般是可以无限的;但是,货币需求却总是有限的。按理说,一个人住一套房子就够了;可是给他10套或100套房子,他也不会嫌多。这就是自然需求,欲望无止限。可一般人为什么只有一套住房?因为他收入有限,没那么多钱。这就是货币需求的限制。

人们常说,这种商品卖不动,人们需求少。表面看,似乎是人们“不喜欢”,实际客观原因是,人们的总共的钱有限,不愿意在这上面花钱。刺激消费的有效手段,不是单纯鼓励消费者猛花钱,而是想法设法让老百姓多挣钱才是硬道理。

经济学理论上,马克思是“假设货币需求不变”。比如,“商品生产率提高为2倍,商品总价值量不变,商品单价下降一半。”就是说,原来10件商品,总货币量是100元,所以每件商品是10元。现在生产率提高为20件商品,如果总货币量不变还是100元,那么商品价值就减少一半为100/20=5元/件。

现实中,“货币总量”并不是不变的。这点,西方经济学考虑的更细腻,“当商品价格降低,需求量往往会增大。”上例中,货币总量往往会扩大为160元,这样每件商品的价格会下降为160/20=8元/件,而不是马克思简化的5元/件。

“互相独立的毫无关联的两种商品”是一个很强很严格的假设。而在实际生活中,商品的使用价值往往具有可替换性,下面举例说明。

假设苹果和梨的总货币需求量是600元保持不变。正常情况下,100斤苹果和100斤梨,3元/斤,总价值600元。 由于病虫害,苹果减产为50斤,可是之前投入的总劳动量基本一样。比如,同时摘2个苹果和只能摘1个的劳动量是一样的。 所以苹果总价值量理应保持不变为300元,每斤价格上涨为6元。 这时,人们的需求量变为50斤苹果和100斤梨,总价值还是600元。

但是更接近现实的情况是,由于苹果和梨都是水果,具有明显可替代性。因为苹果价格变高,人们会削减自己对苹果的需求,使苹果总价值减少为225元,梨的总价值上涨为600-225=375元。即,苹果价格由3元上涨为4.5元,+50%;而不是上涨100%,变成6元/斤。同时,梨的价格稍微上涨为3.75元/斤,而不是保持原价3元不变。

这其实是市场非常公平的合理分配。市场“无形的手”会弥补苹果商由于“天灾”造成的部分损失,但也不会奖励“减产”使其收入一点也不损失。


二维码

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明:姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格,未注明则拒绝

全部回复
2016-8-27 11:25:32
Reality Gets in the Way: The Trouble with Demand Curves





10 HOURS AGOFrank Shostak

One of the few things economists agree on is that prices are determined by supply and demand. This is summarized by means of supply and demand curves, which describe the relationship between the prices and the quantity of goods supplied and demanded.

Within the framework of supply-demand curves an increase in the price of a good is associated with a fall in the quantity demanded and an increase in the quantity supplied. Conversely, a decline in the price of a good is associated with an increase in the quantity demanded and in a decline in the quantity supplied. In short, the law of supply is depicted by an upward-sloping curve while the law of demand is presented by a downward-sloping curve.

The equilibrium price is established at the point where the two curves intersect. At this point, the quantity supplied and the quantity demanded is equal — at the equilibrium price the market is said to "clear."

Graphs vs. Reality

In the conventional supply-demand framework, consumers and producers confront a given price; that is, at a given price, consumers demand and producers supply a certain quantity of a good. Demand is not a particular quantity, such as 10 potatoes, but rather a full description of the quantity of potatoes the buyer would purchase at each and every price that might be charged. Likewise, supply is not a particular quantity but a complete description of the quantity that sellers would like to sell at each and every possible price. At a given price, people will demand a certain quantity of a good while producers will supply a certain quantity.

Within this framework, neither consumers nor producers have anything to say as far as the origin of a good’s price is concerned. The price is just given. In brief, both consumers and producers react to a given price. But who has given the price? Where has the price come from?

The law of supply and demand as presented by mainstream economics doesn't originate from the facts of reality but rather from the imaginary construction of economists. None of the figures that underpin the supply and demand curves originate from the real world; they are purely imaginary.

The framework of supply-demand curves rests on the assumptions of unchanged consumer preferences and income and unchanged prices of other goods. In reality, however, consumer preferences are not frozen, and other things do not remain constant. Obviously, then, no one could have possibly observed these curves. According to Mises, "It is important to realize that we do not have any knowledge or experience concerning the shape of such curves."[size=0.9em]1

Yet, economists heatedly debate the various properties of these unseen curves and their implications regarding government policies.

The supply-demand graphic is contrary to the fact that human actions are conscious and purposeful. In the graphs, there are no entrepreneurs. Instead, the shift of curves is in response to various factors that set prices. For instance, it is held that a shift in the demand curve to the right for a given supply will lift the price of a good. The price will also increase if, for a given demand curve, the supply curve shifts to the left. In other words, the supply-demand framework doesn’t deal with human beings but with automatons that react to various factors.

The whole idea that the price of a good is simply given produces the impression that the price is an attribute of a good (i.e., that it is part of the good itself). There is, however, no such thing as a price of a good in general. The prices of goods are established in a particular transaction at a particular place and at a given time. According to Ludwig von Mises:

A market price is a real historical phenomenon, the quantitative ratio at which at a definite place and at a definite date two individuals exchanged definite quantities of two definite goods. It refers to the special conditions of the concrete act of exchange. It is ultimately determined by the value judgments of the individuals involved. It is not derived from the general price structure or from the structure of the prices of a special class of commodities or services. What is called the price structure is an abstract notion derived from a multiplicity of individual concrete prices. The market does not generate prices of land or motorcars in general nor wage rates in general, but prices for a certain piece of land and for a certain car and wage rates for a performance of a certain kind.[size=0.9em]2

The value that an individual assigns to goods is the product of his mind judging the facts of reality. Individuals assess the usefulness of a good as a means to support their life and well being. On this Carl Menger wrote,

Value is thus nothing inherent in goods, no property of them, nor an independent thing existing by itself. It is a judgment economizing men make about the importance of the goods at their disposal for the maintenance of their lives and well being. Hence value does not exist outside the consciousness of men. It is therefore, also quite erroneous to call a good that has value to economizing individuals a "value," or for economists to speak of "values" as of independent real things, and to objectify value in this way.[size=0.9em]3

Similarly Mises wrote,

It would be absurd to look upon a definite price as if it were an isolated object in itself. A price is expressive of the position which acting men attach to a thing under the present state of their efforts to remove uneasiness. [size=0.9em]4

Since prices are always in reference to a particular transaction, and since each transaction is unique, it is erroneous to homogenize these transactions by means of curves.

How Prices are Determined

Contrary to the mainstream view, prices are not just given; somebody sets them — this somebody is a producer. Whenever a producer sets a price for his product, it is in his interest to secure a price where the quantity that is produced can be sold at a profit. In setting this price, the producer/entrepreneur will have to consider how much money consumers are likely to spend on the product, the prices of various competitive products, and the cost of production.

Producers set the price, but consumers, by buying or abstaining from buying, are the final decision-makers as to whether the price set will lead to a profit. Producers in this regard are at the total mercy of consumers. If, at a set price, a producer cannot make a positive return on his investment because not enough people are willing to buy his product, the producer will be forced to lower the price to boost turnover. Obviously, by adjusting the price of the good, the entrepreneur must also adjust his costs in order to make a profit.

Consequently, a producer will secure a profit when, at the set price of a good, consumer buying will generate revenue that will exceed the cost plus interest. Profit is an indication that both producers and consumers have improved their well being.

By investing a given amount of money, producers have secured a greater amount of money. This, in turn, enables them to secure a greater amount of goods and services, which in turn promotes their lives and well being. Likewise, consumers, by exchanging their money for goods that are on their highest-priority lists, have raised their living standards.

In actual fact, price setting is never mechanistic and automatic. It is up to the producer/entrepreneur to assess whether it is a good or a bad idea to raise prices; after all, what matters for him is making a profit. When a good makes a profit at a particular price, then it is a signal to entrepreneurs that consumers are willing to support the product at the set price. Prices, therefore, are an important factor in establishing how producers employ their resources.

Observe, then, that what determines the amount of goods supplied is not some hypothetical demand schedule, but a producer's appraisal as to whether, at a given place and a given time, consumers will approve of the goods supplied. He has to be as accurate as possible in setting the right price that will enable him to sell his supply at a profit.




二维码

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明:姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格,未注明则拒绝

2016-8-27 11:25:52
Further Fallacies

In the supply-demand framework, an increase in the cost of production will shift the supply curve to the left. For a given demand curve, this will raise the price of a good. In the supply-demand framework, production cost is an important input in determining the prices of goods.

We have already seen, however, that it is consumer buying or abstention from buying that is the sole determining factor for the prices of goods. No individual buyer is preoccupied with the cost of producing a particular good. The price that he will agree to pay for a good is in accordance with his particular priorities at a given point in time. The cost of production is of no relevance to him.

Moreover, the cost-of-production theory runs into trouble when attempting to explain prices of goods and services that have no cost because they are not produced--goods that are simply there, like undeveloped land. Likewise, the theory cannot explain the reason for the high prices of famous paintings. On this Murray Rothbard wrote,

Similarly, immaterial consumer services such as the prices of entertainment, concerts, physicians, domestic servants, etc., can scarcely be accounted for by costs embodied in a product.[size=0.9em]5

Using the supply-demand framework for a particular good, mainstream economists proceed further and introduce supply and demand curves for the whole economy. They hold, for example, that if the economy is under performing then what is needed is a bolstering of demand by means of fiscal or monetary policies. For a given supply curve, they contend, this will push the demand curve to the right, thereby lifting overall output. Needless to say, the supply-demand framework provides the rationale for government and central bank interference with businesses.

This framework, however, says absolutely nothing about how the increase in demand generates more output. Furthermore, it is silent regarding the funding required in order to raise output. Also, in reality, it is producers that initiate the introduction of new products. They set in motion increases in goods and services, and not consumers as such. Producers present new products, so to speak, to consumers who, in turn, by buying or abstaining from buying, determine the fate of products. Hence there is no such thing as an autonomous demand that somehow triggers supply.

Supply-demand graphics also provide the justification for various imaginary monopolistic theories, which in turn provide the rationale for the government destruction of successful businesses. For instance, it is held that a company that forces the price above the competitive price level is engaged in monopolistic activities and therefore must be taken to task.

Even if we were to accept this way of thinking as valid there is no way to establish whether the price of a good is above the so-called competitive price level (monopoly price). By what criteria can one decide what a competitive price is? On this Rothbard wrote,

There is no way to define 'monopoly price' because there is also no way of defining the competitive price' to which the former must refer.[size=0.9em]6

In the supply-demand framework for the economy, economists employ the quantity of output produced and its average price. However, neither the average price nor the total output can be logically defined. It is not possible to establish an average price for a $10 shirt and $50 litre of wine. Likewise, it is not possible to add ten shirts and one liter of wine to establish the total output. Hence, the entire graphical framework of the supply and demand for the economy rests on misleading premises.

What’s more, the whole issue of so-called equilibrium is misleading in the way the supply-demand framework presents it. Equilibrium, in the context of conscious and purposeful behavior, has nothing to do with the intersection of supply and demand curves. Equilibrium is established when an individual’s ends are met. When a supplier is successful in selling his supply at a price that yields profit, he is said to have reached equilibrium.

Similarly, consumers who bought the supply have done so in order to meet their goals. Therefore, government and central bank policies aimed at shifting imaginary curves toward so-called equilibrium in fact prevent both consumers and producers from attaining their goals and hence prevent true equilibrium.

Conclusion

Despite its great appeal because of its simplicity, the supply-demand graphic as employed by mainstream economics is a tool that is detached from the facts of reality. The real-world economy is far too complex to be faithfully rendered by simple graphs that take no account of uncertainty, entrepreneurial speculation, and the ceaseless change of the market economy.

By no means is this framework harmless, because government and central bank decision-makers make use of this tool in forming various policies. This is why they are continually surprised when the real economy performs in a manner different from what their graphical analysis would seem to predict.

FrankShostak's consulting firm, Applied Austrian School Economics, provides in-depth assessments and reports of financial markets and global economies. Contact: email.


  • 1.Ludwig von Mises, Human Action chapter 16(2), "Valuation and Appraisement," p. 333.
  • 2.Ludwig von Mises Human Action chapter 16(13), "Prices and Income," p. 393.
  • 3.Carl Menger, Principles of Economics (New York, London:New York University Press), pp. 120-21.
  • 4.Mises, Human Action, chapter 16(12), p. 392.
  • 5.Murray N. Rothbard, Economic Thought Before Adam Smith: An Austrian Perspective on the History of Economic Thought, vol.1 (Edward Elgar), p. 452.
  • 6.Murray N. Rothbard, Man, Economy, and State, (Nash Publishing), p. 607.

二维码

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明:姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格,未注明则拒绝

2016-8-27 16:23:07
学习!!谢谢分享
二维码

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明:姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格,未注明则拒绝

2016-8-27 20:00:42
二维码

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明:姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格,未注明则拒绝

2016-8-27 20:01:22
路过看看
二维码

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明:姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格,未注明则拒绝

点击查看更多内容…
相关推荐
栏目导航
热门文章
推荐文章

说点什么

分享

扫码加好友,拉您进群
各岗位、行业、专业交流群