Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook ....................................................................................................................................3
Distributor survey......................................................................................................................4
DB steel price forecasts............................................................................................................5
Estimate and PT changes..........................................................................................................5
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................6
Risks ........................................................................................................................................7
Industry update ................................................................................. 8
Early cycle characteristics well documented but sector must now prove recovery potential...8
The global picture......................................................................................................................8
Assessing the global steel outlook; looking for ‘normal’ to return ............................................9
Key industry themes ...............................................................................................................10
U.S. update .............................................................................................................................13
Brazilian update.......................................................................................................................17
China update ...........................................................................................................................19
AK Steel............................................................................................ 21
ArcelorMittal .................................................................................... 24
CSN................................................................................................... 28
Gerdau Ameristeel........................................................................... 31
Gerdau SA........................................................................................ 34
Nucor ................................................................................................ 37
Ternium ............................................................................................ 40
Usiminas........................................................................................... 43
US Steel............................................................................................ 46