Table of Contents
China Snap Shot................................................................................ 3
V-turn ahead ...................................................................................... 5
Key points ................................................................................................................................5
W-shaped recovery: heading into the second “V”....................................................................5
Fund inflows should be a less significant market driver in 2H ..................................................8
Valuations no longer compelling .............................................................................................10
Outlook by Sector............................................................................ 12
Banks: Overweight..................................................................................................................12
Insurance: Neutral ...................................................................................................................14
Real Estate: Underweight .......................................................................................................16
Telecom: Neutral.....................................................................................................................18
Oil & Gas: Neutral ...................................................................................................................20
Utilities (IPPs): Overweight .....................................................................................................22
Capital Goods (Power Equipment): Neutral.............................................................................24
Capital Goods (Railway/Construction): Neutral........................................................................26
Transport: Underweight ..........................................................................................................28
Ports: Underweight.................................................................................................................31
Consumer Discretionary (ex-Auto): Neutral.............................................................................33
Consumer Discretionary (Auto): Neutral .................................................................................34
Consumer Staples: Neutral .....................................................................................................35
Metals & Mining (Steel): Overweight......................................................................................36
Construction Materials (Cement): Overweight........................................................................39
China Market Diary.......................................................................... 41
MSCI China Sector performance ............................................................................................41
Liquidity, flows and sentiment ................................................................................................44
A-H Premium ..........................................................................................................................46
Earnings momentum...............................................................................................................47
Sector operating performance and valuation ..........................................................................48
Volatility and risk .....................................................................................................................50
DB’s China Macro view................................................................... 52
Key Points ...............................................................................................................................52
DB Comments on recent macro data points for China ...........................................................56
Appendix A: Event Calendar........................................................... 60
Appendix B: Results recap.............................................................. 61
1Q09 reporting season: mostly in line ....................................................................................61
Append C: Index composition ........................................................ 62
MSCI-China constituents.........................................................................................................62
Appendix D: Comps (growth)......................................................... 63
Comps (valuation) ........................................................................... 65
Comps (Risk) .................................................................................... 67