Table of contents
Summary of stock ratings ..................................................................................................................................... 4
BNP Paribas ...................................................................................................................................................................4
Société Générale............................................................................................................................................................4
Crédit Agricole................................................................................................................................................................5
Cost of risk .............................................................................................................................................................. 6
Write-downs on loans .....................................................................................................................................................6
Write-downs on toxic assets...........................................................................................................................................6
BNP Paribas’ cost of risk: focus on Fortis toxics .............................................................................................................8
Société Générale’s cost of risk: focus on CEE ..............................................................................................................10
CASA’s cost of risk: focus on SME, Greece and toxics.................................................................................................13
Capital position..................................................................................................................................................... 15
The preferred shares ....................................................................................................................................................15
BNP Paribas capital: weak but risk profile limited .........................................................................................................16
Société Générale capital: adequate ..............................................................................................................................17
Crédit Agricole capital: some adjustments ....................................................................................................................18
2009 earnings estimates ...................................................................................................................................... 19
BNP Paribas earnings: Fortis dependent ......................................................................................................................19
Société Générale earnings: it’s all about CEE and CIB.................................................................................................22
CASA earnings: highly dependent on CIB revenues.....................................................................................................24
Valuation................................................................................................................................................................ 27
BNP Paribas valuation..................................................................................................................................................28
Société Générale valuation ..........................................................................................................................................29
Crédit Agricole valuation...............................................................................................................................................30
Strategy ................................................................................................................................................................. 31
BNP Paribas: Fortis assets acquisition.........................................................................................................................31
Société Générale: the sleeping princess .......................................................................................................................33
Crédit Agricole: acquisition risk, as always....................................................................................................................33