【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月印尼银行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：

Structural shifts ahead: While we stay bullish on the sector, our five-year
study on NIM decomposition finds a risk for structural shift. The short- to
medium-term outlook is likely to be marked by strong growth and sustainable
profitability, which would then be followed by an era of NIM compression.
We believe that investors should be ready to take positions on this cycle.
■ NIM decomposition analysis: We believe the market may have been
overly cautious with the risk of yield on interest earning asset (IEA)
compression curbing NIM. Our analysis shows that the yield on IEA
contributes to 35% of NIM and the low penetration of Indonesian banking
system implies the risk of competition on the lending side may be limited.
However, 65% of the NIM is contributed from the funding side and the
rapidly increasing LDR implies threat of higher competition for funding may
result in NIM compression, starting 2012E.
■ Implications of our findings: Given the incentive for medium-term growth
and high yield on IEA, we believe BBRI and BDMN are likely to be the
winners in the short to medium term. However, in the midst of NIM
compressions in the longer term, banks with the potential to still deliver
above-peer growth are expected to be the winners, namely BMRI and BBCA.
Given BBCA’s more demanding valuations, we include BMRI to our
OUTPERFORM list to capture the benefits of its sustainable robust growth.