Section 1: Population........................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030........................................................................................................................................................ 40
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ....................................................................................................................................................... 41
Section 2: Education And Healthcare.................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030........................................................................................................................................................................ 41
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power.................................................................................................................................................. 42
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006.......................................................................................................................................................... 42
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)................................................................................................................................................ 42
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012 ................................................................................................................................. 43
BMI Forecast Modelling.................................................................................................................................44
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts.......................................................................................................................................................... 44
Electronics Industry............................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
Sources ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 45
Executive Summary
China’s domestic consumer electronics devices market, defined to include computing devices, mobile
handsets, and video, audio and gaming products, was estimated to be worth around US$111.4bn in 2008,
and this is expected to increase to
US$160.6bn by 2013. Despite current Computers: Production And Demand
economic headwinds, growth is set to
2008 & 2009f
grow at a compound annual growth rate
140 60
(CAGR) of 8% through 2013, with
120 50
drivers including 3G handsets, notebook
100
computers, digital TV and LCD 40
80
monitors. 30
60
20
40
Computers 20 10
Computers accounted for around 45% of 0 0
2008e 2009f
China consumer electronics spending in - Desktops production (mn)
- Notebooks production (mn)
2008. BMI forecasts China domestic Computer Hardw are Demand (US$ bn) RHS
market computer hardware sales e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: BMI
(including notebooks and accessories) of
US$52bn in 2009, up from close to US$50bn in 2008. Computer hardware CAGR for the 2008-2013
period will be around 16%.
AV
AV devices accounted for around 20% of
AV: Production And Demand
China consumer electronics spending in
2008 & 2009f
2008. China’s domestic video, audio and
gaming device market was estimated at 120 30
US$24 bn. The market is expected to 100 25
grow at a CAGR of 10% between 2008 80 20
and 2013, up to a value of US$38.8 bn. 60 15
Video applications account for around 40 10
79% of the total market. 20 5
0 0
2008e 2009f
Colour TV production (mn) LHS
Digital camera production (mn) LHS
Video, Audio & Gaming Demand (US$ bn) RHS
e/f = estimate/forecast. Source: BMI
BMI_China_Consumer_Electronics_Report_Q3_2009.pdf
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