Deutsche Bank 4月10日长篇报告,37页。
Cautious on China banks:A weaker credit impulse & fading reflation trade
The MSCI China banks index is now trading 1 standard deviation above its 5year average 1 year forward P/E multiple and a 5 year low implied cost ofequity(i.e.expensive vs where it has traded for the past 5 years).We think therisk reward profile now looks poor given the rising risks to what we believehave been the core drivers of the re-rating(i.e.the China reflation trade).Whilst we remain underweight the China banks in a regional context withinChina we have a clear preference for the retail-orientated banks(ICBC andCMB)over the more wholesale funded orientated bank(joint-stock banks andsome city commercial banks).The latter,we believe,would be more sensitiveto the current rise in market rates as we laid out in our recent report March23rd“Chinese Banks–Financial deleveraging:Rising funding pressure”.