2016 CFA Level3 Morning session 9-B题目中Chadhuri concerned that an output gap is emerging. 根据教材里说
(1) output gap opens in slowdown stage and is still very large in initial recovery stage. (所以题目的情况将要进入slowdown）

但是教材里还说
(2) Inflation increases rapidly in slowdown stage and decreases in initial recovery stage.

所以答案将decline in inflation作为support.是否有问题？
我个人觉得应该用consumer spending大于business spending来作为support。

原题如下。 请教各位！感谢感谢！
Qustion：
Chadhuri also prepares economic forecasts for the developed country of Indusi. Haigang Yang, a portfolio manager at Cambro, considers Chadhuri’s forecasts when determining the tactical asset allocation of Cambro’s Balanced Fund, which invests solely in Indusi’s equity and government bond markets. The fund’s benchmark is 50% equity and 50% government bonds, but Yang has discretion to tactically adjust allocations.
The fund’s current allocation is neutral to the benchmark, but Chadhuri is concerned about the emergence of an output gap and its potential effect on consumer spending. Last year, inflation was 0.75%. The consensus forecast is for the inflation rate to decline slightly to 0.65%. However, Chadhuri’s own forecast is for the inflation rate to decline to 0.25%. Chadhuri’s other forecasts are shown in Exhibit 1.


B.Support, with two reasons based on Chadhuri’s forecasts, his concern that an output gapis emerging.


Answer：
An output gap is the difference between the value of GDP estimated as if the economy were on its trend growth path and the actual value of GDP. Chadhuri’s assessment that an output gap is emerging in the Indusi economy is supported by two factors based on his forecasts. First, Chadhuri forecasts real GDP to decline by 0.15%. Although trend real GDP is not provided, it can be inferred that negative real GDP growth would be below potential output (trend real GDP), which indicates an output gap. Second, Chadhuri expects inflation to decline to 0.25%, compared to the most-recent historical inflation rate of 0.75%. A decline in inflation is typically associated with an output gap.

感谢感谢！