Eviews 协整方程系数与实际经济意义不相符怎么办~写论文，急，在线等

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收藏 2017-04-20

Date: 04/20/17 Time: 16:09
Sample (adjusted): 2012M03 2017M01
Included observations: 59 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: RMBP E NDF TRADE PMI CPI
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 2

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)

Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None *    0.506446    106.7269    95.75366    0.0071
At most 1    0.346778    65.06564    69.81889    0.1129
At most 2    0.299875    39.94119    47.85613    0.2246
At most 3    0.215770    18.90792    29.79707    0.4996
At most 4    0.074312    4.567802    15.49471    0.8529
At most 5    0.000202    0.011937    3.841466    0.9128

Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)

Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**

None *    0.506446    41.66122    40.07757    0.0329
At most 1    0.346778    25.12445    33.87687    0.3766
At most 2    0.299875    21.03327    27.58434    0.2742
At most 3    0.215770    14.34012    21.13162    0.3378
At most 4    0.074312    4.555865    14.26460    0.7965
At most 5    0.000202    0.011937    3.841466    0.9128

Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values

Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):

RMBP E NDF TRADE PMI CPI
1.865655    1.848962    1.182793    116.0149    0.154252    0.967963
-3.834288    42.43536 -46.10040    36.60157 -0.007330 -1.110686
5.898597    136.3807 -134.7974 -16.12428    0.239981    1.554755
2.672907    68.74102 -65.07864 -1.560204    0.432390    0.002071
-0.761932 -13.64586    14.77492    12.93321    0.485261 -0.096514
-1.802211    6.381857    0.425527 -13.64359 -0.747549 -0.102235

Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):

D(RMBP) -0.031719    0.054784    0.007996    0.003800 -0.031592    0.000190
D(E) -0.003787 -0.003128    0.000345    0.013237 -0.005205    0.000110
D(NDF) -0.003031 -0.000762    0.003202    0.015903 -0.006461    7.02E-05
D(TRADE) -0.012970    0.001316    0.001408    0.001111 -0.000176 -7.15E-05
D(PMI)    0.021782 -0.201145 -0.051882 -0.115695 -0.119254 -0.006491
D(CPI)    0.055945    0.121923 -0.130027    0.078832    0.003389 -0.001978

1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood    428.4277

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
RMBP            E       NDF       TRADE       PMI CPI
1.000000    0.991052    0.633983    62.18453    0.082680    0.518833
         (9.54399)    (9.56022)    (9.79307)    (0.07183)    (0.07278)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(RMBP) -0.059176
   (0.04266)
D(E) -0.007065
   (0.00995)
D(NDF) -0.005655
   (0.01181)
D(TRADE) -0.024198
   (0.00400)
D(PMI)    0.040638
   (0.21323)
D(CPI)    0.104374
   (0.10792)

2 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood    440.9899

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
RMBP E NDF TRADE PMI CPI
1.000000    0.000000    1.570037    56.28917    0.076042    0.499999
   (0.63151)    (8.99510)    (0.06604)    (0.06390)
0.000000    1.000000 -0.944505    5.948587    0.006698    0.019004
   (0.06876)    (0.97946)    (0.00719)    (0.00696)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(RMBP) -0.269233    2.266120
   (0.09106)    (0.90712)
D(E)    0.004928 -0.139736
   (0.02265)    (0.22558)
D(NDF) -0.002734 -0.037922
   (0.02699)    (0.26883)
D(TRADE) -0.029244    0.031865
   (0.00911)    (0.09071)
D(PMI)    0.811886 -8.495393
   (0.47027)    (4.68450)
D(CPI) -0.363112    5.277271
   (0.23418)    (2.33271)

3 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood    451.5066

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
RMBP E NDF TRADE PMI CPI
1.000000    0.000000    0.000000 -63.10820 -0.039507    0.089485
   (11.4760)    (0.07527)    (0.07761)
0.000000    1.000000    0.000000    77.77584    0.076210    0.265962
   (12.0900)    (0.07930)    (0.08177)
0.000000    0.000000    1.000000    76.04747    0.073596    0.261468
   (11.7961)    (0.07737)    (0.07978)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(RMBP) -0.222068    3.356618 -3.640906
   (0.15520)    (3.04581)    (3.03782)
D(E)    0.006965 -0.092637    0.093167
   (0.03865)    (0.75858)    (0.75659)
D(NDF)    0.016154    0.398801 -0.400128
   (0.04593)    (0.90148)    (0.89911)
D(TRADE) -0.020937    0.223940 -0.265857
   (0.01547)    (0.30356)    (0.30276)
D(PMI)    0.505854 -15.57112    16.29222
   (0.80074)    (15.7148)    (15.6736)
D(CPI) -1.130089 -12.45590    11.97278
   (0.37400)    (7.33986)    (7.32061)

4 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood    458.6766

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
RMBP E NDF TRADE PMI CPI
1.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000 -0.063842    0.501698
   (0.07053)    (0.07050)
0.000000    1.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.106201 -0.242058
   (0.07760)    (0.07757)
0.000000    0.000000    1.000000    0.000000    0.102921 -0.235263
   (0.07622)    (0.07619)
0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    1.000000 -0.000386    0.006532
   (0.00136)    (0.00136)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(RMBP) -0.211910    3.617861 -3.888231 -1.809542
   (0.16527)    (3.37895)    (3.33857)    (2.61594)
D(E)    0.042347    0.817295 -0.768286 -0.580052
   (0.03823)    (0.78158)    (0.77224)    (0.60509)
D(NDF)    0.058662    1.492009 -1.435092 -0.455948
   (0.04535)    (0.92716)    (0.91608)    (0.71780)
D(TRADE) -0.017967    0.300304 -0.338152 -1.481020
   (0.01643)    (0.33586)    (0.33184)    (0.26002)
D(PMI)    0.196612 -23.52411    23.82149 -3.818128
   (0.84248)    (17.2242)    (17.0184)    (13.3348)
D(CPI) -0.919379 -7.036939    6.842532    12.92662
   (0.38786)    (7.92968)    (7.83492)    (6.13905)

5 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood    460.9546

Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
RMBP E NDF TRADE PMI CPI
1.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.566230
   (0.08730)
0.000000    1.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000 -0.349407
   (0.12264)
0.000000    0.000000    1.000000    0.000000    0.000000 -0.339296
   (0.11941)
0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    1.000000    0.000000    0.006922
   (0.00117)
0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    0.000000    1.000000    1.010814
   (0.86953)

Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
D(RMBP) -0.187839    4.048967 -4.355006 -2.218133 -0.017063
   (0.16197)    (3.30763)    (3.27052)    (2.56542)    (0.01476)
D(E)    0.046312    0.888316 -0.845183 -0.647363    0.002720
   (0.03793)    (0.77469)    (0.76600)    (0.60086)    (0.00346)
D(NDF)    0.063585    1.580180 -1.530559 -0.539515    0.004047
   (0.04495)    (0.91788)    (0.90759)    (0.71192)    (0.00410)
D(TRADE) -0.017833    0.302705 -0.340751 -1.483295 -0.001277
   (0.01651)    (0.33707)    (0.33329)    (0.26144)    (0.00150)
D(PMI)    0.287475 -21.89679    22.05952 -5.360463 -0.115511
   (0.83513)    (17.0550)    (16.8636)    (13.2279)    (0.07609)
D(CPI) -0.921961 -7.083181    6.892600    12.97045    0.012262
   (0.38971)    (7.95860)    (7.86930)    (6.17273)    (0.03551)

我写出来的协整方程是：rmbp=62.18453trade-0.991052e-0.633983ndf-0.518833cpi-0.08268pmi
trade表示中国进出口贸易额占世界贸易的比重，rmbp表示人民币国际支付在全球占比，实际经济意义应该是trade越大，人民币国际支付占全球份额越大。但是为啥这个协整方程的trade的符号是负的呢？PS：其他变量的符号是对哒，经济意义说得通。
求给位大神帮帮忙，写论文这个弄不明白啊！！！跪谢！！！！！！！！！

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雪糕zh

2017-4-20 18:42:08

哪位大神神神神帮帮我吗？谢谢谢谢啦！！！

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