Oil & Gas – Resource Play Spotlight
September Report: The Viking Play – Tight Oil Potential at
Dodsland Just the Beginning
I N V E STMEN T H IGHL IGHT S
• Our monthly Resource Play Spotlight is intended to highlight key developments within North
American resource plays, with a concentrated focus on the Canadian plays. The primary objective of
this periodical is to keep investors abreast of new developments and production data (as soon as they
become available), and cut through the noise to elaborate on the most relevant focal points.
• In our view, technology has changed the game in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin
(WCSB), such that pools once seen as marginal may soon be considered the prizes for future
development. We believe the advancement of horizontal multi-stage fracture stimulation technology
stands to trigger a paradigm shift in the Basin on par with the impact of 3D seismic or horizontal drilling
(HZ) in the 1980s and 1990s.
T H I S MONT H : INTRODU C I N G THE V I K ING P LAY I N SOUTHWEST SASK ATCHEWAN
• With estimated original oil in place (OOIP) in the neighborhood of 6.0 billion barrels, we place
the Viking play in southwest Saskatchewan second only to the Cardium in terms of magnitude
among emerging tight oil plays. Similar to the Cardium, the Viking has already been well delineated.
• Private producer WestFire Energy has the largest Viking land position, with approximately 150 net
sections, followed closely by Penn West (~143 net sections) and Baytex (~135 net sections). Also notable
are private producer TriAxon Resources (~95 net sections) and Crescent Point (~47 net sections).
• We like the Viking Play for four main reasons:
1. Large OOIP/potential to expand play. Our estimate of 6.0 billion barrels of original oil in place
places the Viking play in southwest Saskatchewan second only to the Cardium in terms of magnitude
among emerging tight oil plays. We also see potential for significant expansion of the play.
2. Attractive per-well economics, but best wells yet to come. With estimated IRRs of 57% and
breakevens of US$34.00/bbl, Viking economics edge out the Shaunavon, and come in slightly behind the
Bakken and Cardium plays. With much improvement in completion techniques still to be had, we think the
best results in the play are likely yet to come.
3. Well delineated/low geological risk. Initially discovered in the 1950s, Viking oil pools in southwest
Saskatchewan have been well delineated with vertical drilling, and hence there is little geological risk
associated with the play.
4. Upside to technology/cost reductions. As with most tight oil and tight gas plays that are exploitable
using horizontal multi-stage fraccing, continued technological innovations to completion techniques have
the potential to increase recovery factors and improve economics. In the case of Viking, the impact of
expected cost reductions on per-well economics is magnified, because drilling costs for these relatively
shallow wells are already significantly lower.