Table of contents
Investment stance: take profits in Advantest/Nikon; top pick is HKE 3
Sector share price forecasts for next three months 3
Share price analysis of past three months 4
Short-term catalysts influencing share prices 5
Medium- to long-term focus 6
Risks 7
Previously published research (24 September)
Industrial electronics sector: Asia market research feedback: favor taking profits except NANDrelated
8
Overview of semiconductor market research 9
Investment stance 9
DRAM outlook: expect Oct-Dec QoQ flat production for major PC makers, prices likely to
peak in early Oct 10
NAND: production has begun for new applications; many factors indicate ongoing tight
supply/demand 13
Front-end SPE 15
Back-end SPE 17
LCD capex: possibility of a loss in G8 share by Nikon 18
Individual company reports
Elpida Memory (6665): End of DDR3 play 19
Tokyo Electron (8035): Order peak could leave shares range-bound 25
Advantest (6857): End of DDR3 play; consensus call for FY3/11 return to profitability seems
overly optimistic 30
Nikon (7731): Risk of a large fall in share of the 8/8.5G LCD equipment market 36
Disco (6146): No near-term catalysts 41
Dainippon Screen Mfg. (7735): Upgrade rating, but see limited upside 47
Hitachi Kokusai Electric (6756): Spring at last, and not soon enough 52