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2005-11-30

真是经济学家们的错吗?

韩朝华

中国社会科学院经济研究所

当今中国的各类媒体上,凡批评经济、指摘时弊的,鲜有不捎着骂几句经济学家的,斥经济学家为当前中国社会问题的罪魁俨然已是舆论主流。这真是一种有趣的文化现象。

经济学家之成为众矢之的,当然有其缘由。自八十年代以来,经济学被改革大潮奉为显学,经济学界中人也因此风头十足,人见人羡。但二十多年改革下来,中国经济问题成山,矛盾重重,社会不平,人心不顺,不骂你骂谁?

然而,平下心,静下气,分析一下目前各类经济问题或社会问题,真的都是中国经济学家们馊点子误国、殃民的结果吗?就以备受诟病的教育和医疗领域为例,时下中国的教育腐败和医药费高涨真是因为中国的经济学家们开错了药方?

众所周知,教育和医疗是中国两个迄今仍保有高度行政管制的领域。由于这种管制,社会资源难以自由进入,使得这两个领域中的供方(学校和医院)拥有着明显的垄断权势。稍知经济学原理的人都懂得,垄断厂商若拥有定价自由,必会限制产量,抬高价格,而这类领域中的需方因无从选择,只能听凭供方漫天要价。因此,对于垄断行业的改革,当务之急在于打破垄断,引入竞争。只有当竞争打破了既有的供方垄断,需方有了选择供方的较大自由之后,价格自由化才会促使厂商努力适应消费者的需求。八十年代以来中国制造业的改革过程就是这方面的一个极好例证。那时的中国制造业中,短缺遍地,卖方主宰市场,放开价格的改革引发了连续数年的高通货膨胀。但进入九十年代后,各产业领域中的短缺现象逐步消失,买方市场替代了卖方市场,通货膨胀悄然隐去,几乎在一夜之间通货紧缩成了宏观调控的中心议题。为什么?就是因为市场化改革消解了供方垄断,消费者有了交易主导权,有效竞争的市场形成了。

显而易见的是,一个长期受行政统制的经济领域不可能在放开价格的初期就出现买方市场。从卖方市场到买方市场的转变要经过一个供给不断扩大、竞争不断加强的结构转型过程。在这种转型完成之前,出现一定范围内的价格上涨在所难免。非如此难以有供给的扩大和竞争的增强,也就不会有卖方市场向买方市场的转型。九十年代后期以来,中国的教育领域和医疗领域实际上就是处于这样一种转型过程之中。教育费用和医疗费用的不断上涨本质上是存在供方垄断的反映。如果我们能像八十年代推进制造业领域的改革开放一样,坚持市场化改革方针不动摇,尽快撤销阻碍社会资源进入这两个领域的制度壁垒,医疗领域和教育领域中的买方市场就能早日形成。那时,药价虚高、学费暴涨的问题将不攻自破。因此,目前严重困扰普通民众的学费问题和医疗费问题,从根本上来讲,不是由于市场化导向的改革在这两个领域中推行得过了头,而是因为这种改革尚未到位:价格放开了,垄断却依旧,供求双方间的博弈严重失衡,不涨价才是不正常的。面对这种局面,放弃市场化导向的改革,向强化行政统制的方向倒退,不仅无助于问题的解决,反而会强化供求间既有的权势失衡,巩固价格高涨的结构基础。

对于迄今为止教育和医疗领域中这类半吊子的市场化改革,中国的经济学家们历来肯定者少,否定者多。经济学界的主流意见从来是坚持市场化的改革方向,尽快撤销行政管制,将竞争导入教育和医疗领域。遗憾的是,经济学界的这类主张至今未能得到政策当局的充分认可。因此,实际情况恰好与目前的主流舆论相反,中国的教育改革和医疗改革所以会陷入眼下这种难局,不是因为在改革方针的制定上经济学家们的影响太大,而是因为他们的影响太小。再展开来看,其他一些领域中的问题与这两个领域中的情况可谓大同小异,认为中国经济学家们的主张左右了中国改革走向的说法与实际情况相差何止十万八千里。

在对经济家的批评中,常能听到这样一种批评:市场并非万能,在许多场合下它会失灵;为此,需要靠政府干预和管制这双“有形之手”来矫正市场这双“无形之手”;而中国经济学界坚持市场化改革方向的主张是盲从国外理论、迷信市场的表现。持这类看法的人士往往还爱援引一些发达国家中成功的政府管制或干预实例来作自己的论据。但这类论者完全忽略了那些国家与中国的一个基本差异,即那些国家的政府都处于相对完善的法治约束之下。在那些国家中,政府的管制和干预行动大都是法治化民主决策的结果,而不是行政部门自行其是的产物,因而那些国家中的政府干预较少有罔顾公众利益而一意孤行的。因此,指出市场并非万能,强调需要政府干预以补救市场失灵,这诚然不错。但是,什么样的政府才能较有把握地弥补市场失灵却是大有讲究的。

愿独立思考的朋友不妨根据政府管制的程度对中国各社会经济领域作一排序,比如医疗、教育、金融、通信、铁路、民航、城市公用事业、新闻出版、房地产、汽车制造、旅馆酒店、家电制造、纺织服装、餐饮服务、IT制造业、家具制售、零售商业……;然后看一看目前社会公众很不满意的领域是哪些,而公众意见较少的领域又是哪些;在此基础上再比较一下,那些公众不满意的领域与公众意见较少的领域在承受政府管制的程度上是否存在明显的差异。我相信,任何人,只要智力正常,不怀偏见,都会发现,眼下公众满意度较低的领域几乎都是政府管制较多的领域。甚至可以说,政府管制的程度与公众的不满程度之间存在着明显的正相关性。因此,将那些引发民众高度不满的问题归因于市场化改革和政府管制不够的论断显然缺乏起码的逻辑,认为强化政府管制和干预就能改善那些问题领域的想法未免过于天真。

近日看到的一条报道或许有助于人们识别中国行政权力的基本倾向。因报道不长,特全文照抄如下:

“据新华社北京11月10日电(孙晓胜、叶铁桥)北京市建委10召开新闻发布会表示,将严厉制裁‘恶意讨薪’行为。

据介绍,当前出现的‘恶意讨薪’现象,一是通过‘民工讨薪’解决工程各方合同纠纷,怂恿民工以群体性讨薪为名,施加压力,甚至阻断国道交通,以达到尽快解决的目的;二是由‘黑包工头’蓄意组织、操纵外来务工人员制造事端,造成群体性事件的发生。对上述问题,市建委将会同公安、劳动保障等有关部门严厉制裁。”(《中国青年报》2005年11月11日1版,“北京将制裁‘恶意讨薪’”)

长期拖欠民工工资,本属故意违约、丧失诚信的机会主义交易行为,凡注重保护公平交易和民众权益、以维护法治为要务的政府决不会听任这类现象任意泛滥。但据各地调查的情况来看,拖欠民工工资的单位中不少恰与政府机关有关,追讨民工欠薪的过程十有八九会追到某个行政机关头上去。可以说,拖欠民工工资之成为社会顽症,在很大程度上是由于各类行政机关的机会主义交易倾向得不到遏制。正因为如此,尽管中央对清理民工欠薪三令五申,民工欠薪问题却依然如故,以致不少地方的民工群体不得不采取非常措施才有望索得欠薪。而北京市的这一政令不追究欠薪者的法律责任,不努力创造工程发包方无法欠薪、不敢欠薪的制度环境,反而指责民工的维权行为是“恶意讨薪”,并扬言要“严厉制裁”,可谓不辨是非,颠倒黑白,无出其右。它再清楚不过地显示了不受约束的行政权力面对公众权益时的本能倾向。中国的百姓真以为能靠这样的“有形之手”来矫正“市场失灵”并维护公众权益吗?

中国的改革是一种行政权主导下的改革,行政权力系统的利益在改革取向上具有决定性的影响。各类改革措施或建议,凡有助于行政权力部门减轻甚至摆脱其经济责任和风险的,都能得到积极的贯彻和尝试,而有可能削弱行政控制权力或缩小政府干预自由度的,则大多要么被长期搁置,要么在实行中走样。所以,像放权让利、自负盈亏、“砸三铁”之类的改革早早地被付诸实施,而规范市场秩序和厂商行为的制度建设却步履维艰。自八十年代以来,经济学界对完善破产法、颁布反垄断法、强化对契约关系和产权的保护、维护消费者权益、建立公平竞争的市场秩序等问题的研究和呼吁可谓不绝如缕,但这些方面的改革和制度创新却鲜有长足进展,至今难言成功之日。

当然,中国社会中的各个阶层或利益集团都在以自己的方式影响着中国的改革进程,但行政权力系统是一个特殊的利益集团,它的社会权势大于法律,拥有着事实上的规则制定权,一般社会阶层难以与之抗衡。因而,行政权力系统对改革进程的影响力要远远大于其它社会阶层。在其他社会阶层不能对行政权力系统施加有效约束时,这个集团难免要利用其掌控的权力来谋求自身效用的最大化。

中国的改革以渐进性为基本特色。但渐进性本身意味着制度转型不能一步到位,意味着改革的不彻底和制度的不规范。而不彻底的改革和不规范的制度历来是当权者上下其手、营私舞弊的温床。转型中的行政权力部门既摆脱了传统计划体制下的集权型约束,又无须承受完善市场经济中的竞争限制和法治约束,左右逢源,其自由度可谓举世无双。中国目前的各种社会难题和突出矛盾,要寻根源,几乎都可以追溯到这一点上去。将这类问题的产生归结于主张市场化改革的经济学家,无异于冠履倒易;为了解决这类社会问题而主张放弃市场化导向的制度改革,向传统的集权型管制倒退,更是南辕北辙。

许多人在指责经济学家时喜欢将经济学家描述为一种利益集团,甚至是一种依托强势暴富的利益集团。不知发这类指责的人士对中国经济学家的生存状态了解多少。其实,只要到各类高校或专业研究机构里去走一走,看看多数专门从事经济学教学或研究的人目前的生存状态和工作状态,会不难发现,眼下中国多数经济学教授或研究员们的收入水平不过是一个中等公司职员的水平。他们中多数人的生活与各类高消费无缘。面对日益高涨的医疗费、子女学费和房价,多数经济学家们也同样忧心忡忡,也在拍案骂娘。谓予不信,眼下各类高校经济院系毕业生的就业取向可以证明。在目前全国一流高校经济院系的博士、硕士毕业生的求职目标排序中,到高校教经济学或到专业研究机构做经济研究(即当经济学家)肯定进不了前三位,而进大公司、考公务员,乃至到新闻出版单位当编辑都要比当经济学家更受青年博士和硕士们的青睐。说中国的经济学家在整体上是一个暴富并维护暴富的利益集团实在是一件需要超常想象力的事情。中国的经济学家们身处窘境仍主张坚持市场化改革,不过是因为他们的思考依托于严密的理论框架和广泛的国际经验。他们坚信,中国目前面临的各类经济-社会难题只有靠坚持改革和制度创新才可能最终克服。

骂经济学家成为时髦是改革开放过程中诸多社会矛盾尖锐化的一种折射。由于改革过程中不同利益群体间的博弈失衡,中国的改革中出现了“赢家”与“输家”的鲜明分野。所谓“输家”主要是指城市下岗职工、进城民工、失地农户、低收入阶层,乃至毕业即失业的知识青年等弱势群体。他们的利益在改革中受到损害,心中不满,需要发泄却又无处发泄,便只好将矛头指向仍在为改革鼓与呼的经济学家。学者们无权势,不会对弱者构成伤害,自然成为可心的撒气桶。

面对这类扭曲的民意,中国的经济学家们甘愿认命。只要经济学家的挨骂能使弱势群体稍抒闷气,也算是对和谐社会的建设有所裨益。只是希望各界朋友,对经济学家骂尽可以骂,但对经济学的书却不能不读,切勿因一味责骂经济学家而弃现代经济学如敝屣。因为,面对当今纷纭复杂的社会转型现象,不掌握一点现代经济学的理论知识和思维方法,还真不容易做到头脑清醒,心明眼亮。“经济学帝国主义”可不是经济学家们王婆卖瓜、自吹自擂的结果,而是现代经济学在社会问题分析上所具有的独到解释力使然。以为把中国的经济学家都骂臭了街就能解决中国的问题,怕是要后悔的。

当代中国虽然已追求了二十多年的市场经济并有了一个市场经济,但它还只是有了一个发育不全、屡遭扭曲的市场经济。因为,眼下的中国,依然是私权不敌公权,市场拗不过市长。要想在中国追求公平,保护弱者,确立和谐,根本的出路只有一条,即坚持改革,真正实现经济的市场化、社会的法治化和政治的民主化。行百里而半九十。现在若要在改革的基本方向上发生动摇,甚至出现倒退,则迄今中国民众在改革中已经付出的牺牲都将被打水漂,历史将再次轮回。

20051117

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2005-12-2 22:39:00
还不错,支持!!!
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2005-12-5 00:35:00

这位仁兄可能对中国几千年的历史不懂吧。中国缺乏市场经济(商品经济)的传统吗?不缺!

中国缺什么?是市场与政府之间的关系的制衡机制。好好看看历史吧!

有人曾经讲过,中西方对待市场经济的观念的最大差别在于对于公权与私权的认识不同,中国总是把政府做为最后的救命草,而西方则是尽量限制政府的权力和权利。

我想这才是解决中国市场经济问题的本源。其实讲到历史,大家都知道中国近代商人是如何通天的,如红顶商人,目前中国也有大批这样的人。因此,问题不在于市场经济体制本身,而在于我们到现在尚没有学到如何解决政府与市场的关系。

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2005-12-5 16:27:00
经济学应当促进经济全面、协调、可持续发展。
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2005-12-7 20:06:00

《两种傲慢都要不得》这篇文章,比较客观,我以为值得一看。

鄢烈山      香港社会学教授丁学良先生关于国内真正意义上的经济学家不超过五个的言论,一石激起千层浪,据说引发了网民新一轮对所谓经济学家的批评和谩骂。站出来回应的,与经济学家搭界的人,我看到的有几位,包括哈佛大学经济学博士、世界银行研究部研究员、武大和北大等大学的博导邹恒甫,近期《南方人物周刊》发表的对他的访谈,可以说是对丁学良观点的论证和补充;还有是《经济学消息报》的总编高小勇和《中国改革》杂志的主编新望,与我一样本职是传媒人。高小勇为中国最好的经济学家们受到的恶评鸣不平,不仅认为他们有捍卫科学和理性的大智大勇,而且断言其实,贫富差距拉大是市场化改革的必然结果;新望也是为中国的主流经济学家说话,正面评价他们,但他的评价与中国改革、发展的实践进程相联系,在肯定中国经济学家独有的幸运和三大贡献,为他们洗冤的同时,也承认中国当下存在形成一个坏的市场经济框架的危险,呼吁矫正偏差,实行民主的改革,公平的改革,大众参与的改革。(参见《财经时报》)   本文不拟从我的视角详细评点上述四人的观点,限于篇幅只想谈一点比较明显的感受。   一种是学院派的傲慢与偏见。它指向直接参与中国改革开放社会实践的知识分子,特别是经常在传媒上就重大政策、决策向公众发表意见的人;邹恒甫讥之为新闻媒体经济学家。   应当承认,致力于学术研究,争取多出学术成果,是所有学者、教授安身立命的根本,他们应当像邹恒甫所说的那样耐得住寂寞;邹先生说书生自有嶙峋骨,他最厌憎权钱交合,这是非常难得的;至于邹先生抨击国内现在出名的经济学家,都是学者型官僚和官僚型学者,这个全称判断是否允当可以讨论,其反对官、商、学通吃的初衷也不乏针对性;而他致力于引进国际上先进的经济学教材,在数理金融、数理经济方面开国内之先河更是功不可殁。但是,他不该用在国际一流学术刊物上发表了多少论文做惟一的尺度,来评价中国的经济学家。邹恒甫在上海财大演讲时说:他们著名,著名在哪里呢?都发过些什么文章呢?都摆出来看看嘛!国内发的,中文写的,当然都是不算数的。他瞧得起张五常,因为他在美国有些论文;他比较瞧得起林毅夫,因为林毅夫有两篇有价值的文章;他敢于睥睨中国经济学界,也是知道我在国外还有点文章所以,我说我和林毅夫是三五流,张维迎是九流,大多数人都不入流。   我觉得这不是狂不狂的问题,只要真是了不起,不仅是中国不可多得的而且是中国不可或缺的才智之士,态度狂傲一点,我们就该笑纳。然而,在海外发表几篇英文论文就真的那么了不起吗?中国当下最需要的是学术象牙塔的顶尖人物,还是脚踏实地,有力推动中国转型,加速市场经济制度建设的人物?我认为后者更重要,或者说需要更多的后者。我们出一两个经济学大师为中国争光为学术锦上添花那当然是求之不得的好事。但中国是后发国家,中国面临的大量经济学问题,都是人家探讨过的;中国面对的由计划经济向市场经济转型的问题,未必是国际经济学界所关心的、至少不是前沿的问题。中国当下最需要的是向官员与民众普及经济学常识(所谓更新观念),经世致用同时也是中国知识分子宝贵的文化传统。因此,参与中国当前的改革开放实践,对公共政策发表意见,不论是以公民的身份还是专家的身份,都是值得尊敬的。对于中国经济学家对推动中国经济体制改革与经济发展的贡献,新望先生已有令人信服的论述,本文不必重复。   这里,不仅涉及到如何历史地、现实地评价一个学者的学术成就,而且关涉到中国需要什么样的经济学家,或者说,经济学家在中国的发展进步中如何定位的大问题。我的结论是,经济学家群体可以有不同偏好,甘坐冷板凳的与积极参与社会实践的应当互相包容、互相尊重,不要文人相轻、唯我独尊。   另一种傲慢与偏见,我不知如何命名贴切。   在我看来,一些经济学家之所以不大像经济学家,主要是没有明晰自己的身份:一、你可以像余秋雨那样认为自己为企业利益代言(或为别的特殊群体、集团)代言很正常,但应明示是企业的形象大使、公关代理而不能以经济学家的身份发表貌似公允的言论来混淆视听,公与私、显与隐两种身份不能模糊。二、你是学者,就应当坚持真理多讲理想的模式,为社会树立一个正义的值得不懈追求的目标;你不是幕僚,不能只为主公思谋当前的对策,不能将最优选择视为虚幻而抽象肯定具体否定之,将所谓次优选择合理化为实际上的最优选择,并使之合法化、定型化。有位经济学博士说:深受现代经济学理念熏陶的当代经济学界,对任何没有现实可行性的政策主张都缺乏兴趣,我怎么听都觉得不像学者而像上书干谒者讲的话。三、你的术业有专攻,经济学领域的事你也不可能一通百通,不能包打天下越界发表专家意见;如果越界就要像我一样,只是以一个普通公民和读书人的身份讲话。   现在有学者在呼吁反对民粹主义,我也认为应当警惕民粹主义;但同时要警惕将民粹主义与民主主义混为一谈,假反民粹之名而反对四大民主(即十六大讲的民主选举、民主决策、民主管理、民主监督)。   本文讲的反对两种傲慢与偏见,不仅是针对经济学界的,法学、社会学、政治学等各学科都一样。

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2005-12-7 22:55:00

贴一个克鲁格曼为经济学家的辩护吧。不过对于多数中国的事件而言,是不适用的,因为大部分中国经济学家的学术独立性值得考量。但是市场经济的确是要坚持的。

The implausible pundits SYNOPSIS: Krugman's first article on the economic culture wars: economists versus literati Late in the summer of 1992 I received the page proofs of an article I had written for a liberal intellectual American magazine. I phoned in a few corrections; only one of them was really important. Editors always change your title - and the new title was snappier than my own pedestrian proposal. But the editor had added a subtitle that horrified me. It was, I thought, utterly inappropriate for a plainly written article that was distinctly populist in its implications. I pleaded with him to drop the subtitle, but when the article came out there it was: 'The rich, the right, and the facts: deconstructing the income distribution controversy'. 'Deconstructing'? Why would an editor (who, incidentally, regarded himself as a champion of ordinary working Americans) insist on using a buzzword that means nothing to most people and alienates most of the rest? Was he not gratuitously playing into the hands of his (and my) political opponents? I was baffled. But I now think I understand his motives - and I believe that this seemingly trivial incident offers an insight into a hidden conflict that lies behind many of the confusions that bedevil the public discussion of economics. Every economist who ventures beyond the confines of the academic world gets used to facing a certain amount of hostility. Some of that hostility comes from people who hold strong political views and do not want them challenged; some of it comes from people who want more from economists than they can deliver - easy answers to hard problems, accurate predictions of the inherently unpredictable. What I have gradually come to realise, however, is that there is an extra reason why certain people, namely literary intellectuals, are hostile to economists. Their hostility is not so much political as cultural. My point is a familiar one: that our society remains divided between C. P. Snow's two cultures; or perhaps to put it differently, there is a continuing struggle between two ideas of what it means to be an intellectual. One culture is humanist and literary; the other mathematical and scientific. The editor of my article, I now believe, was perhaps unconsciously using the language of critical theory as a way of declaring his allegiance in that struggle; he was saying: 'I may write about quantitative stuff like GDP and real wages, but my sensibility is literary.' In this particular case, the harm done by the culture war was minor: the audience for my article was probably reduced only marginally. But I have become convinced that the divide between two kinds of intellectuals - those who feel comfortable with a more or less mathematical approach to the world and those who do not - is a hidden but powerful force confusing and garbling the public discussion of many issues. In a way, economics can be regarded as one of the humanities. Like history or sociology, it is concerned with human beings and what they do. And it is therefore a subject in which many humanist intellectuals are interested. But, as a discipline, economics is firmly on the mathematical side of the great divide. It is, indeed, a field in which ideas are mainly expressed in the form of mathematical models. This means that humanist intellectuals, even when they are deeply interested in economic affairs, generally find what mainstream economists have to say repellent if not incomprehensible. And because such intellectuals are uncomfortable with the way economists think, they systematically favour economic thinkers and ideas that most economists, with good reason, regard as unworthy of serious attention. The result is that the wider public debate about economics, a debate that is largely filtered through publications edited by people who are or would like to be literary intellectuals, is deeply distorted: facts and concepts that research has established beyond a reasonable doubt are rejected or ignored, while views that are flatly wrong but that appeal to a literary imagination remain stubbornly in circulation. And these misguided views directly shape debates over real economic policy. Consider The Atlantic Monthly - one of America's most influential intellectual magazines, and one with more coverage of economic affairs than most of its rivals. I recently did a quick review of The Atlantic's articles from mid-1993 to date. Over that period, there were by my count 16 articles dealing mainly with economics, about one every other month. Eight dealt with international trade (a surprisingly high proportion for the United States, where imports are only 13 per cent of national income); every one of those articles, and most of the others, expressed views that no serious researcher would support, and explicitly denigrated the economics profession as a whole. Admittedly, this record is at least partly a reflection of the personal preferences of The Atlantic's editors. Still, a similar hostility to economics may be found in many other publications. Of course, one might argue that this hostility is a mark, not of the prejudices of intellectuals, but of their perceptiveness. Maybe economics really is a 'failed profession', and literary intellectuals just happen to be clever enough to realise it. But this explanation does not survive a close inspection: whenever one looks at an issue on which the views of mainstream economists and those of the economic thinkers favoured by the literati diverge, one finds that the opposition to economic orthodoxy rests not on a reasoned critique but on a failure to understand basic concepts. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the discussion of international trade. Free trade is an idea intellectuals love to hate. As I said earlier, The Atlantic has devoted half of its economics articles in recent years to international trade - a far higher proportion than the intrinsic importance of the subject can justify. And without exception these articles conclude that the economists' case for free trade is all wrong. Similar attacks on conventional views of trade have appeared in virtually every intellectual magazine in the English-speaking world. What is it about mainstream economic views on international trade in particular that inspires such hostility? It cannot be that these views are particularly stupid: the modern theory of international trade is nothing if not subtle, and its distinguished lineage includes some pretty impressive intellectuals (David Hume, John Stuart Mill). It also cannot be that conventional trade theory is excessively dogmatic: on the contrary, economists have long recognised a variety of qualifications and exceptions to the classical case for free trade. So why not emphasise these qualifications, rather than attack the whole intellectual structure built up over the past two centuries? The answer, I would argue, is that what literary intellectuals dislike about the conventional economic analysis of trade is that it is necessarily expressed in a language they do not understand or want to understand. For someone who is comfortable with even low-level mathematical thinking, the classical analysis of international trade as John Stuart Mill developed it can seem trivially simple. But to get that analysis across without the maths - to explain the basic story entirely in plain English - is, as seven generations of economists can attest, nearly impossible. Simple as they are, the basic concepts of conventional international trade theory turn out to be as inaccessible to the anti-mathematical intellectual as those of quantum mechanics. And so the same ideas that seem clear, beautiful and compelling to most economists seem like obscure mumbo-jumbo to many highly intelligent people. Conversely, ideas that seem evidently absurd to mainstream economists can seem plausible to many other intellectuals. For example, any economist who picked up Sir James Goldsmith's manifesto The Trap, which has received attention in several magazines and newspapers, quickly realised that Goldsmith's ideas about the world economy were not merely open to question, but the very same classic confusions that have been the source of exam questions on a thousand undergraduate midterms. And now we come to my final point: the peculiar way in which the hostility of humanist intellectuals to mainstream economics has ended up giving aid and comfort to some rightwing politicians. For Goldsmith is not just a billionaire author; he is also a leading voice in a political movement that has recently begun to flex its muscles on both sides of the Atlantic. There is a new kind of rightwinger abroad in the land, one who mixes harsh social conservatism with protectionism and nativism. Where does this ideology come from? A few months ago, when the initial electoral successes of Patrick Buchanan had stunned America's political commentators, The Wall Street Journal asked the candidate about the sources of his ideas. Given the belligerent populism of his campaign, one might have expected Buchanan to disclaim any intellectual influence, to insist that he was simply preaching native common sense. But instead he offered an extensive intellectual pedigree for his ideas, citing not only modern authors like Goldsmith but 19th-century predecessors. In particular, he cited the protectionist doctrines of Friedrich List. How did a late 20th-century American populist become a disciple of a confused early 19th-century German economist? Well, Buchanan did not discover List on his own: he was led there by the books and articles of James Fallows, the Washington editor of, yes, The Atlantic, who has in recent years attempted to promote List as an iconic figure, a sort of anti- Adam Smith. In short, here is a case in which the hostility of a literary intellectual to conventional economics has helped to provide an intellectual gloss to ideas that every educated citizen should instantly recognise as nonsense. It would be silly to suppose that we can bring the war between the two cultures to an end. After all, that conflict has raged for at least two centuries. But it is possible for the educated individual to become aware of what is going on; to recognise that the negative things intellectuals say about economics may have less to do with content than with culture and style.

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