Contents
Underweight Utilities/IPPs, Market Weight Pipes 3
2009 Energy Utility/IPP Stock Preferences and Q3/09 Changes 6
Quarterly Review 7
Scotia Capital Observations/Conclusions 8
Group Outperformance History 8
Comparison to 1873 and 1929 Less Relevant 13
Credit Crisis Melting 14
2009E-2010E-2011E EPS Growth, ROEs, and Valuation 14
Rating Changes in Q3/09 21
Q3/09-Q3/10 Interest Rate Outlook 22
2009E EPS and ROE 22
Q3/09 Geopolitical Issues Ease a Lot 23
Normalized Total Return Expectations Unchanged 24
Dividend Yields Versus Government Bond Yields 25
EV/EBITDA Comparison With Energy Utility Income Trusts and LPs 26
Frontier Gas Pipelines on Hold 29
Conclusion: Underweight Energy Utilities/IPPs, Market Weight Pipes 29
Q2/09 Canadian EPS Summary and Observations 30
Q2/09 U.S. EPS Summary and Observations 31
Canadian versus U.S. Energy Utility Stocks 32
2009 Changes in Canadian and U.S. Energy Utility Taxation 34
Canadian Dividend History 35
Credit and Financing 37
Q3/09 Canadian Credit Observations 37
Q3/09 U.S. Credit Observations 39
Q3/09 Financing/Restructuring 40
M&A Activity 42
Recent Initial Public Offerings/Equity Financings 44
North American Power Market Highlights 45
United States Overview 45
Canada Overview 45
U.S. Influence on Canada 46
U.S. Trends 46
2009 U.S. Coal Trends 48
U.S. Regulatory Overview 54
Coal/Petroleum Coke Gasification Developments 55
U.S. 2009 ROE and Equity Bases Remain Higher Than Canada’s, For Now 57
Canadian Regulatory Overview 59
Canadian Power Trends 61
Provincial Energy Developments 61