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2009-11-01

当今这个大多数发达国家的财政赤字都升至创纪录水平之际,寻找新的全球经济领袖是合情合理的。如果仅以官方公布的财政赤字和现金储备来衡量,中国似乎是这一领袖的理想人选。事实上,国际货币基金组织(IMF)一位高级官员上周六已在北京透露说,在该机构完成内部重组后,中国可能不久就将成为IMF的第二大股东。

但能否成为领袖并不仅仅取决于手里的现金储备。北京要想令人信服地声称自己应该在全球扮演更重要角色,就必须显示出自己了解使现代经济体得以运转的规则以及如何照这些规则行事。而当前的经济低迷却只能显示北京在这方面是多么落伍。中国的市场机制显然落后于亚洲和西方的那些更发达国家。中国政府的某些机构继续公然漠视财产权和财产契约。国家的法规往往会迁就那些有势力的国有实体。

David Klein




政府漠视财产权和财产契约的最大受害者是国内私营企业家。最近几个月,中国有数百家私人所有和私人承包的煤矿被强制国有化或强制合并。由于北京颁布的几项政令,将自己积攒的钱投入采矿业的国内投资者损失了数十亿美元。类似的例子也出现在其他领域,国家机关为了减缓不断加重的产能过剩问题,强迫私营企业将自身以国家强制规定的价格卖给国有竞争对手。鉴于现行法律体系以及国家机关都站在国有企业一边,私营企业没有办法反对被国有企业兼并。

外国投资者虽然过去在免受国有部门侵害方面能够受到一些保护,但在本轮经济低迷期间他们也沦为了这方面的受害者。为了减轻国有企业与海外交易对手所签衍生品合约给前者造成的损失,中国的国有企业监管机构国有资产监督管理委员会9月初向香港那些被震惊的银行家们暗示说,由于国资委从未允许某些国有企业签订衍生品合约,因此这些国有企业可能不会履行他们的合约义务。由于不想激怒中国政府,外国银行目前倾向于通过仲裁来解决与中国企业的纠纷,不过他们已经尝到了其中的苦涩。

在一起类似案例中,中国不良资产的外国投资者今年7月被中国最高人民法院的一纸裁决搞得大惊失色。裁决说,那些曾合法购买了中国不良贷款的外国投资者,如果未获原来承诺会向这些贷款提供担保的保证人同意,且未获当地外汇主管部门批准,就不能获得保证人原来为这些贷款提供的担保品。这一裁决意味着,投资中国不良资产的外国人如果不克服大量的法律和官僚障碍,将很难获得这些担保品。

与上述拒绝履行衍生品交易的事例相比,这项裁决更能显示中国尚未做好担当全球经济领袖的准备。这些外国投资者是被中国政府在本世纪初请来帮其消化1.4万亿余元(合2,050亿美元)不良贷款的。这些投资者已经帮助中国拯救了数十亿美元不良资产,将其中许多改造成了赚钱的业务。但是,当与政府有良好关系的国有企业重庆谊德实业有限公司(Chongqing Yi De Industrial)向最高人民法院提出上诉,要求推翻早些时候有利于外国债权人的一项法庭裁决,法官们转而开始反对最高人民法院较早时一项裁决中的部分内容,于今年7月做出了有利于谊德实业的裁决。中国通常会偏向有关系的内部人士的法律体系似乎再一次导致了这种结果。


在所有上述事例中,中国政府本来都可以选择向世界显示,它愿意尊重财产权,愿意公平地履行合同,并且能处理那些违规公司,无论它们有怎样的政治背景。而实际情况却是,为了维持政府预算平衡的表象以及国有企业的盈利,法律法规受到了漠视,有关系的内部人士和具政治影响力的大型国有企业再次被告知,他们不需要按合同办事。私营企业家和那些没有关系的人被提醒说,没有政治后台,法律没有意义。

中国决策者需要认识到,并非只要坐拥大量现金就能当上全球经济领袖。从长远看,对财产权可信赖的尊重以及在推动合同履行方面的不偏不倚将能为中国经济吸引到更多全球投资者。在这样一天到来之前,中国经济更能吸引的将是那些有关系的寻租者,这些人专靠政府不按规矩办事而获利。Victor Shih
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2009-11-1 20:37:21
与一楼对应的英文阅读:
In an era when the most developed economies are running record fiscal deficits, it is reasonable to look for new global economic leadership. Gauging solely by officially reported deficits and cash reserves, China seems an ideal candidate. Indeed, a senior International Monetary Fund bureaucrat revealed Saturday in Beijing that China may soon become the second-largest shareholder in the organization after internal restructuring.

But leadership does not depend on cash reserves alone. To lay credible claim to a bigger global role, Beijing must show it understands the rules that make a modern economy work and how to play by them. The economic downturn has only shown how far behind Beijing is in this regard. China's market institutions clearly lag those in more advanced Asian and Western countries. Parts of the government continue to blatantly disregard property rights and contracts. Rules are conveniently bent to favor powerful state entities.

The greatest victims of the government's disregard for property rights and contracts are domestic private entrepreneurs. Recent months saw the forced nationalization and mergers of hundreds of privately leased or owned coal mines. With the issuance of a few decrees from Beijing, domestic investors who plowed their own savings into mining lost billions. Similar examples abound in other sectors, as state agencies try to alleviate a growing overcapacity problem by forcing private firms to sell out to state-owned competitors at state-mandated prices. Because the legal system and state agencies all stand on the side of state firms, private firms have little recourse to oppose government takeovers.

Foreign investors, who used to enjoy some protection from state predatory behavior, have also fallen victim to this in the downturn. To lessen the losses of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that entered into money-losing derivatives contracts with offshore counterparties, the State Asset Supervision and Administration Commission, the regulator for state firms, indicated to stunned bankers in Hong Kong in early September that these SOEs may not honor their contracts because the Commission never granted some SOEs the permission to enter into derivatives contracts. Not wanting to anger the government, foreign banks are now leaning toward arbitration, but a sour taste has been left in their mouths.

In a similar case, foreign investors in China's enormous distressed-asset market were surprised by a July decision by the Supreme People's Court that foreign investors who had legally purchased a nonperforming loan cannot obtain the collateral that the original guarantor pledged to a loan without the guarantor's permission and without the approval of the local foreign-exchange authorities. This decision makes it very difficult for foreign investors in distressed assets to collect on collateral that is legally bound to a given loan without surmounting numerous legal and bureaucratic hurdles.

This ruling shows China's lack of preparation even more clearly than the reneged derivatives deals. Foreign investors in distressed loans were invited by the government in the early 2000s to help digest more than 1.4 trillion yuan ($205 billion) in nonperforming loans. These investors have helped China rescue billions in distressed assets, rehabilitating many into profitable businesses. But when a well-connected state firm, Chongqing Yi De Industrial, appealed the Supreme People's Court to overturn an earlier decision in favor of the foreign creditor, the judges went against elements of its earlier rulings and ruled in favor of Yi De Industrial in July. The legal system's usual bias toward connected insiders once again seemed to have determined the outcome.

In all these examples, the Chinese government could have chosen to show the world it is willing to respect property rights, enforce contracts fairly and discipline firms that violate the rules regardless of their political connections. Instead rules were disregarded to maintain the facade of relative budgetary balance and SOE profitability, and connected insiders and large SOEs with political influence were once again told that they need not adhere to contracts. Private entrepreneurs and outsiders were reminded that the law means little without political backing.

Chinese decision makers need to realize that global economic leadership does not stem only from a large cash hoard. In the long run, a credible respect for property rights and unbiased contract enforcement will draw a larger share of global investors into the Chinese economic sphere. Until such a day arrives, China's economy will tend to attract connected rent seekers who profit from the government's willingness to bend the rules.
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2009-11-1 21:10:50
搬个板凳 ,慢慢看,慢慢想~~~~~

哈哈   ,  谢啦 楼主~~~
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