Table of Contents
Investment case........................................................................4
Multiples recovered to historical average level..........................................................10
Rosneft is operating growth leader again with the Vankor field ramping up.............12
State-controlled companies are clear beneficiaries of government’s current tax policy
..................................................................................................................................16
Unified transportation may favor East and West Siberia upstream at the expense of
Volgo-Urals ...............................................................................................................19
A few possible SPOs may be on the agenda in 2010-2011........................................20
Quarterly financials....................................................................................................21
Summary financials................................................................24
Valuation summary....................................................................................................25
Sensitivity analysis ................................................................27
Valuation tables......................................................................28
Rosneft ....................................................................................29
Lukoil.......................................................................................31
Surgutneftegaz .......................................................................35
Surgutneftegaz Prefs .............................................................36
Gazprom Neft..........................................................................37
Tatneft .....................................................................................39
Tatneft Prefs ...........................................................................41
Alliance Oil Company.............................................................42
DCF valuation Summary ...........................................................................................44
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................47