【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月日本衍生品行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：

Market: The Japanese equity market failed to keep pace with the US market
once again, with both the Nikkei 225 and broader TOPIX grossly
underperforming the S&P500. The trend is indeed alarming, in our view, as
the TS ratio (TOPIX divided by S&P500) reached below 0.8 for the first time
since 1955. Technically, the TOPIX appears oversold against S&P500. This
said, the fact that the Japanese equities failed to respond to economic
indicators (such as the OECD CLI and ISMPMI) is worrisome to us, as it may
represent a beginning of a new trend where the Japanese equities will be semiperpetually
left behind their global peers. Aside from a long-term view that
Japan’s mounting debt and aging population will be negative to Japanese
equities, we continue to believe that the culprits behind the current equity
underperformance are the currency and policy risk. Although a technical
rebound may be imminent, until we see a clear reversal in the USD/JPY rate,
we may not see the end to the current trend of underperformance.
• Earnings results: As of Nov 12 open, out of 1,343 TSE1-listed companies
that have March as the fiscal year-end, 1,133 companies have reported their
Q2 earnings. In aggregate, we see 14.3% QoQ improvement and 22.6% YoY
decline in revenues, 107.9% QoQ improvement and 34.7% YoY decline in
operating profit, 91.2% QoQ increase and 41.8% YoY decrease in recurring
profit, and 115.7% QoQ increase and 53.9% YoY decline in net profit. About
61% of the companies reported thus far reported negative YoY growth in
operating profit. The picture looks somewhat brighter, as only 25%
reported negative QoQ growth. In terms of sectors, the real estate sector
stands out as the sector that has seen the most QoQ improvements, followed
by sectors such as the wholesale sector, the chemicals, and the machinery
sector. As for individual companies, measured by improvements in operation
profit, CSK has seen the largest QoQ jump, followed by Fuji Kiko. CSK also
has seen the largest YoY improvement, followed by Daikyo, Hoosiers, and
Yachiyo Bank.
• Japan restructuring basket: Out of the earnings results, J.P. Morgan equity
analysts have highlighted companies that may benefit from restructuring
efforts. They are: Asahi Breweries, Acom, Tokyu Land, Fujifilm, Hoya, Rohm,
Pioneer, Suzuki Motor, Aisin Seiki, and Isetan Mitsukoshi. Based on
potential upside from their current share prices to J.P. Morgan’s price
targets, we believe Asahi Breweries, Tokyu Land, Fujifilm, Hoya, and
Isetan Mitsukoshi are the most attractive. Consequently, our Japan
restructuring basket is comprised of these five stocks. Please see the original
research on these stocks for risks and other details. To directional option
investors, we suggest purchasing ATM calls partially financed by selling
90% puts with appropriate maturity on the stocks highlighted above.
Note: Since options are a decaying asset, investors who purchase options risk
losing the option premium paid to purchase the option(s). Options are not
suitable for all investors.