【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月欧洲与美国酒店行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PPT
        【页数】：50
        【目录或简介】：

Summary: Moving into a long slow recovery
 Results from our 2009 Corporate Travel Survey suggest that 2010 will see another RevPAR decline.
 Our survey confirms that hotel prices are likely to be down again in 2010…
…and further freebies (internet, breakfast) means that hotel margins are likely to come under pressure.
 We forecast that RevPAR will be –4% in the US and –2% in Europe.
 Looking forward, we do think that the hotel industry is moving towards recovery…
….but with occupancy 6 points below its long-term average, we think it will take 3-4 years of economic
growth for hotels to recover pricing power…
…we expect the reality of a long and slow recovery to lead to better entry points for most stocks in the
coming 12 months.
 Our top pick is Whitbread, where we think RevPAR growth should remain resilient, margins are high, it
has a strong pipeline for expansion, is well funded with a significant asset base, and the valuation is the
lowest of all the hotels on peak, trough and 2010 earnings.
We are concerned by high valuations and still weak fundamentals for Millennium & Copthorne (UW),
InterContinental (EW), and Accor (EW) and would wait for a better entry point for these stocks.