【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国餐饮酒店行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：42
        【目录或简介】：
Where we stand on the stocks
While valuations across the group are starting to feel somewhat stretched,
positive catalysts still outweigh the negatives. We expect most companies in the
sector to “beat and raise” in 1Q as expectations going into the year were fairly
conservative and as demand finally appears to be showing signs of life. The
combination of improving demand and a benign cost environment should lead to
strong incremental profits and returns, supporting stock prices.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG.N),USD122.52Buy
McDonald's (MCD.N),USD68.68 Buy
Panera Bread Co (PNRA.OQ),USD82.82 Buy
Burger King (BKC.N),USD21.38 Buy
Ruth's Hospitality Grp. (RUTH.OQ),USD5.99 Buy
Companies featured
YUM Brands, Inc. (YUM.N),USD40.70 Hold
Burger King (BKC.N),USD21.38 Buy
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (CMG.N),USD122.52Buy
McDonald's (MCD.N),USD68.68 Buy
Panera Bread Co (PNRA.OQ),USD82.82 Buy
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH.OQ),USD15.04 Hold
Ruth's Hospitality Grp. (RUTH.OQ),USD5.99 Buy
Darden Restaurants (DRI.N),USD46.80 Hold
Global Markets Research Company
Raising estimates and PTs on several names
In this report, we are raising ests. and/or PTs on several names (see Fig. 1 for
summary). We continue to have Buys on BKC, CMG, MCD, PNRA, & RUTH, with
CMG and RUTH as our highest-conviction ideas in the near term.
YUM Brands (YUM: Hold) – reports April 14th
YUM kicks off earnings season next week. DBe $0.55 vs. consensus $0.52.
Expect sequential improvement in US SSS (-3% 1Q10E vs. -8% 4Q09A) driven by
promos at Pizza Hut/Taco Bell. Look for China SSS to remain soft (-2%) though
likely returns to positive territory in coming months on easing compares and
improving macro. Raise PT to $40. Maintain Hold on full valuation (16x P/E).
McDonald’s (MCD: Buy) – reports April 21st
DBe $0.96, in line w/ consensus. We have Mar SSS at +3.2% globally, w/ bias to
upside. Our 2H10 assumptions (+3% global SSS; +7% EPS growth) look
conservative given improving US macro, beverage launch, and solid intl. trends.
Chipotle (CMG: Buy) – reports April 21st
See potential upside to our $0.96 est. (consensus $0.94) on both sales and
margins. We’re modeling 1Q and 2010 SSS at +2%, so no major cyclical recovery
baked in. Historically, CMG SSS track 7-8% above industry, suggesting 1Q could
be closer to 5-6%. Ex-cash P/E of 24x is not overly expensive considering group
multiple over 19x, superior unit growth (low-teens), and room for upside to ests.
Panera (PNRA: Buy) – reports April 27th
We’re modeling $0.76 vs. $0.77. But see upside on the qtr. w/ SSS running at +8-
9% against lower food costs. $600mm buyback (on $2.5bn mkt. cap.) provides
downside support. Raising PT to $91. Assumes 20x ex-cash P/E on 2011E.
Burger King (BKC: Buy) – reports April 29th
DBe $0.29, in line w/ consensus. Our thesis: improving macro, easing compares
and shift to more balanced marketing message could bode well for sales,
profitability, franchisee relations and stock sentiment. At 14x P/E, BKC remains
one of the cheapest names in the group, despite largely franchised biz model.
Ruth’s Hospitality Group (RUTH: Buy) – reports early May
DBe $0.14 on -2.5% SSS. Improving biz. employment and spending bodes well for
a solid cyclical recovery. This is not fully baked into our forecasts. We’re modeling
2011 EBIT margin at 6.6% vs. 13.6% peak in 2005. Raise PT to $7.00.
Valuation & risks
We use target valuation multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, rel. P/E, FCF yd) and DCFs to
derive our price targets. Key risks include changes in consumer spending patterns,
input costs, contamination and other health concerns.