【经济学家】对人民币和中国外汇政策的争论.

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收藏 2009-11-28

President Barack Obama, on his first visit to China this week, urged the government to allow its currency to rise. President Hu Jintao politely chose to ignore him. In recent weeks Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, the Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, have also called for a stronger yuan. But China will adjust its currency only when it sees fit, not in response to foreign pressure.

奥巴马总统在他的第一次中国行里，强烈要求中国政府让其货币升值。但是胡/锦/涛主席礼貌地选择了忽略了他的建议。在最近的几周里，欧洲中央银行主席Jean-Claude Trichet，国际货币基金组织的董事总经理Dominique Strauss-Kahn，也呼吁人民币的升值。但是中国政府只会选择在适合的时机调整其货币，而不会屈从于国外的压力。

Chian allowed the yuan to rise by 21% against the dollar in the three years to July 2008, but since when it has more or less kept the rate fixed. As a result, the yuan's trade-weighted value has been dragged down this year by the sickly dollar, while many other currencies have soared. Since March the Brazilian real and the South Korean won have gained 42% and 36% respectively against the yuan, seriously eroding those countries' competitiveness.

中国在过去的三年里直到2008年7月，允许人民币对美元升值了21%，但是自从那以后中国多少保持着固定的汇率。这样所导致的结果就是，人民币的贸易加权价值在今年里被疲软的美元所拖垮，而同时其他国家的货币却在高涨。自三月以来，巴西里拉和韩国元已经分别对人民币升值了42%和36%，同时也严重的侵蚀了他们国家的竞争力。

Speculation about a change in China's currency policy increased in the week before Mr. Obama's visit, after the People's Bank of China tweaked the usual wording in its quarterly monetary-policy report. It dropped a phrase about keeping the yuan "basically stable" and added that foreign-exchange policy will take into account "international capital flows and changes in major currencies". But exchange-rate policy is decided by the State Council, not the central bank. And many policymakers, notably in the Ministry of Commerce, do not favour a revaluation right now.

中国人民银行在季度货币政策报告中微妙地改变了常用的措辞后，有关中国货币政策改变的猜测在奥巴马总统访华的前一周急剧增加。在政策报告中，中国人民银行使用了保持人民币“基本稳定”的词语，并且宣称外汇政策将会考虑“国际资本流动和世界主要货币的变化”。但是，外汇政策是由国务院决定的，而不是中央银行。并且尤其是商务部的很多决策者都不赞成现在对人民币重新估价。

Indeed, Chinese officials have become bolder in standing up to Washington. "We don't think that it's good for the world economic recover, and it is also unfair, that you ask others to appreciate while you depreciate your own currency," said a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce on November 16th. The previous day Liu Mingkang, China's chief banking regulator, blasted Washington for its low interest rates and for the failing dollar, which, he claimed, was encouraging a dollar carry trade and global asset-price bubbles. He strangely ignored the fact that China's own overly lax monetary policy, partly the result of its fixed exchange rate, is fuelling bubbles in shares and property.

确实，中国的政府官员已经越来越敢于抵抗华盛顿政府了。“我们并不认为（人民币升值）对现在的全球经济的恢复有什么好处，而且当你要求其他人升值自己的货币时，却让自己的货币贬值的行为是不公平的。”中国商务部的一位发言人在11月16号对新闻媒体如是说。在前一天，中国银监会主席刘明康也批评华盛顿政府的低利息率和美元贬值鼓励了美元的利差交易以及全球的资产定价泡沫。他却奇怪地忽略了这样一个事实，正是中国自己的过分宽松的货币政策在纵容目前的股市与房产的泡沫，而这种货币政策的出现部分原因是由于实行固定的汇率。

Foreigners argue that a stronger yuan would not only help reduce global imbalances, such as America's trade deficit, but would also benefit China. It would help China regain control of its monetary policy. By pegging to the dollar, it is, in effect, importing America's monetary policy, which is too loose for China's fast growing economy. A stronger yuan would also help rebalance Chian's economy, making it less dependent on exports, putting future growth on a more sustainable path.

外国人争辩人民币的强势将不会仅仅有助于全球的均势，像是减少美国的贸易赤字，也会对中国有益。这将会帮助中国重新获得对自己货币政策的控制。与美元挂钩，实际上是借用了美国的货币政策，而这样的政策对于中国目前高速发展的经济来说过于宽松了。一个强势的人民币也有助于帮助中国重新平衡本国经济，使其减少对出口的依赖，把未来的增长置于一个可持续发展的道路上。

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lingyw04

2009-11-28 05:04:36

If a stronger exchange rate is in China's own interest, why does it resist? Beijing rejects the accusation that its exchange-rate policy has given it an unfair advantage. It is true that other emerging-market currencies have risen sharply this year, but this ignores the full picture. Last year, China held its currency steady against the dollar throughout the global financial crisis, while others tumbled. Since the start of 2008, the yuan has actually risen against every currency except the yen.

如果一个强势的汇率会对中国有益，那么为什么要抵制它呢？中国政府否定了目前的外汇政策使其处于一个不公正的有利位置的指控。确实，其他新兴市场国家的货币在今年里都大幅上涨，但是光看这一点却忽略了全局。去年，当其他国家的货币在全球经济危机中都纷纷跳水时，只有中国政府保持其货币对美元的稳定。自从2008年初，人民币其实相对于除了日币的所有货币都升值了。

Beijing also argues that it has done a lot to help global rebalancing. Thanks to its monetary and fiscal stimulus, domestic demand has contributed an incredible 12% percentage point to GDP growth this year, while net exports subtracted almost four percentage points. Its current-account surplus has almost halved to around 6% of GDP from 11% in 2007. Chinese policymakes accept that the yuan needs to appreciate over the longer term, but say now is the wrong time, becuase exports are still falling, by 14% over the past 12 months.

中国政府还声称已经为了全球的均衡做了很多贡献。正是由于现在的货币和财政政策，国内需求才在今年的GDP增长中贡献了不可思议的12个百分点，同时出口外贸下降了大约4个百分点。中国现在的贸易账户盈余已经由2007年的11%减少到了现在的大约6%。中国的中央决策者同意在长期内人民币需要升值，但是认为现在还不是正确的时机，因为中国的出口还在减少，在过去的12个月里已经减少了约14%。

Another reason for hesitation is that the theory that revaluing the yuan will allow Beijing to tighten its monetary policy is too simplistic. China's experience since 2005 shows that a gradual rise encourages investors to bet on further appreciation; hot-money inflows then swell domestic liquidity. A large one-off increase might work, as it would stem expectations of a further rise. But the sort of increase required--perhaps 25%--is politically unaccepted becuase it would put many exporters out of business overnight.

对于升值人民币的迟疑还有一个原因，就是认为重新调整人民币就会让北京政府收紧货币政策的理论显得过于简单了。自2005年以来中国的经验告诉我们逐渐升值货币会增加投资者对货币继续升值的期望，热钱涌入，接着就会增加国内货币的流动性。但是一次大幅升值却有可能起作用，因为它不会引起人们对继续升值的期望。但是这种一次升值——可能高达25%——在政治上是不能被接受的，因为这样会使得很多对外出口的贸易商一夜之间被迫退出国际贸易市场。

Some Chinese economists warn that the benefits to America from yuan revaluation are much exaggerated. In particular, a strong yuan would not significantly reduce America's trade deficit. There is little overlap between America and Chinese production, so America goods cannot replace Chinese imports. Instead, consumers would simply end up paying more for imports either from China ot other producers, such as Vietnam. This would be imposing a tax on America consumers.

一些中国经济学家警告说人民币升值对美国的利益可能在很大程度上被夸大了。特别是，强势的人民币并不会显著地减少美国的贸易赤字。中国和美国的贸易产品几乎没有重叠，所以美国的货物不能够取代来自中国的进口货物。相反，这样做会使得美国的消费者为中国或者其他国家的进口货物付更多的钱，例如越南。这相当于将税收强加在美国普通消费者的身上。

These arguments help explain why China is dragging its feet. Nevertheless, in the long run, a stronger yuan would benefit China's economy--and the world's--by helping shift growth from investment and exports towards consumption. It would boost consumers' purchasing power and squeeze corporate profits, which have accounted for most of the increase in China's excessive domestic saving in recent years. China wil probably allow the yuan to start rising again early next year. This will not be the result of foreign lobbying--indeed, China is more likely to change its policy if foreign policymakers shut up. But the early next year China's exports should be growing again, its year-on-year GDP growth could be close to 10%, and its inflation rate will have turned positive. The arguments in favour of revaluation will then loom much larger.

这些观点能够帮助解释为什么中国一直没有同意人民币升值的要求。不管怎样，在长期来看，一个强势的人民币通过将增长从投资和出口转移到消费都会使中国获益，同样使世界经济获益。它将会刺激人们的购买力并且减少企业的利润，企业利润被认为是中国最近这些年来过分国内储蓄的原因。中国政府将很有可能在明年年初同意人民币开始继续升值。当然，这不会是国外各方游说的原因——实际上，如果国外势力闭嘴的话，中国将更有可能调整自己的政策。但是，明年年初中国的出口将会继续增长，明年的GDP增幅可能接近10%，通货膨胀率会开始变为正的。那时，要求人民币升值的呼声会更加高涨。

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<The Economist>, Nov 18th 2009

之所以把这篇文章放上来，原因有三：
一，人民币升值的论战最近愈演愈烈，国外势力频频施压，国内经济学家也各自为阵，作为经济学类的学生，我们应当对这次事件有个大致的了解
二，这篇文章较为浅显，即使没有太多经济学背景的同学也很容易读懂，大家可以自己评析中国政府应不应该选择让人民币升值
三，通过这篇文章，让大家了解国际顶尖杂志并没有我们想象的那么高深难懂，遥不可及，希望大家以后多学多看多思，能为己用

第一次做文章翻译，若有翻译错误、用词不当、语句不通等，敬请见谅；若有经济学常识错误、概念误读、理解偏差，还请大家批评指正，共同学习，共同进步！