【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国医疗管理行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：48
        【目录或简介】：
We continue to find ourselves increasingly constructive on the stocks, with the
probable set of reform outcomes more constrained/analyzable, this still being the
prime factor for the group. It is, after all, not February any more. That is, we know
considerably more than in those early murky reform days, are much closer to a
conclusion, and with the stocks reflecting the probable base case, we see potential to
incorporate incremental, moderating elements. While with the headwinds of
unemployment, Medicare rates, flu, and COBRA, it’s difficult to get excited about
2010 operating results, we like the longer-term view more than we have in some time,
with underwriting margins having re-set to levels we haven’t seen in years.
Importantly, we believe this creates the backdrop for a second, sustainable leg in the
stocks, once we get through reform. While the result from Saturday’s Senate vote are
perhaps disappointing to those that were hoping for an early demise for any bill at all,
we find the group attractive here.
• With the group up 12% over the last four weeks and some stocks
approaching 52-week highs, is it time to take some off the table or is there still
considerable runway from here? We bias heavily to the latter and following up
from our upgrade of AET several weeks ago, we’re also raising WellPoint and
CIGNA to Overweight from Neutral, with both in our view still showing
significant room. The full group currently trades at 9x 2010E, this being the level
that used to be the group trough multiple prior to the new, uncharted territory we
set in late fall 2008 (with the broad financial market concerns) and again in
February 2009 (the beginning of reform overhang). Relative to the S&P 500, the
group currently shows at a 40% discount, this compared to the historical 15-20%.
Shares of WLP and CI trade at 8x and 7x our respective 2010 EPS outlooks.
• In this report we also include our updated, detailed company/sector operating
metrics, these incorporating the third quarter results.
In summary:
• What we like: 1) reform parameters/outcomes becoming more defined and
analyzable; 2) post the 3Q reports, the 4Q09s mostly now have more room; 3)
most fundamentally for investors with a longer orientation, sector underwriting
margins have re-set, with the support for out-year improvement better than we’ve
seen in some time; and 4) valuations that while recovered, still show room.
• What we don’t like near term: 1) 2010 op results likely uninspiring – while we
believe this widely understood already; and 2) the excise tax (in whatever form it
takes), a considerable drag on current views – while we believe ultimately mostly
passed through.
• What’s up next: 1) post Saturday’s vote, the Senate floor debate – and from the
base bill (out last week), we expect mostly moderating elements to be introduced;
2) key among these, we still expect the public plan configuration to be decided on
the floor via amendments – at the very least, we expect a move to a trigger from
the “opt-out;” 3) The $6.7bn excise tax – at least we don’t expect it to get worse
from here and we see some potential for moderation and/or postponement; and 4)
we also look for enhancements to coverage mandates – this as bill works its way
through conference.