【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月日本游戏机行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：38
        【目录或简介】：
Peaking of home game market priced into sector stocks: The game sector
remains anemic, having underperformed TOPIX by 10% in FY2008 and 25%
in 1H FY2009, as investors priced into sector stocks a future peaking of the
so-called home game platform cycle. The average P/E of the seven game
companies we cover is 14.5x based on our FY2009 estimates and 13.2x based
on our FY2010 estimates, or lower than the average P/E of around 18x during
past platform cycle peaks.
• Second growth phase coming in the home game software market: Home
game software sales volume fell roughly 14.5% YoY in 1H FY2009, and in
this respect sector share prices accurately anticipated trends in the game
software market. However, we think that in FY2009, the home game market,
driven by the PS3, will enter the second growth phase of the current platform
cycle, and that the performance of game sector stocks will improve in 2H
FY2009 and FY2010. Consequently, our sector stance remains bullish.
• Reviewing price targets: We have extended our price target time frames for
game sector stocks to December 2010 and reviewed our price targets for each
of these stocks. We now use FY2010 P/E rather than FY2009 P/E to calculate
our price targets (for Nintendo, we use a NOPAT-based P/E; see page 20 for
details). Our price targets are now as follows: Tecmo Koei Holdings ¥1,000
(was ¥890), Hudson Soft ¥700 (was ¥1,000), Namco Bandai Holdings ¥1,100
(unchanged), Nintendo ¥33,000 (was ¥35,000), Square Enix Holdings ¥2,400
(unchanged), Capcom ¥2,300 (was ¥2,500), and Konami ¥1,900 (was ¥1,700).
Risk factors to our price targets include presence or absence of strong titles,
the sales of such titles, and yen appreciation.
• Upgrading Capcom to Overweight: With our price target 69.0% higher than
the recent share price, we think Capcom is highly undervalued, so we upgrade
our rating to Overweight from Neutral. While we think FY2009 earnings will
probably come in below guidance, we think profit growth in FY2010 is more
likely for Capcom than for industry peers, considering their respective game
software line ups. Share price momentum could improve if an earnings
disappointment in FY2009 becomes the consensus expectation.