【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国石油天然气生产行业研究报告
        【作者】：TD证券
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：46
        【目录或简介】：
TD Newcrest Junior / Intermediate Energy
Review
Gas Prices Continue To Weigh On The Sector
With Q3/09 reporting complete, this report revises our commodity price forecasts,
reviews performance in the quarter, as well as looks at themes from the quarter.
Commodity Price revisions – As shown in Exhibit 1, we are revising our 2009E
and 2010E natural gas prices and our 2009E oil price. Our 2009E Nymex natural
gas price forecast decreases to US$4.05/mcf from US$4.15/mcf, while our 2010E
Nymex natural gas price forecast decreases to US$6.00/mcf from US$6.50/mcf.
On an AECO basis, our 2009E natural gas price forecast decreases to $3.90/mcf
from $4.00/mcf, while our 2010E natural gas price forecast decreases to $5.50/mcf
from $6.15/mcf. For 2009E, our WTI price increases to US$61.85/BBL from
US$60.00/BBL.
Capex continues to target cash flow – With continued concern over natural gas
prices on excess supply and the general natural gas bias of the junior and
intermediate companies in Canada, we are not surprised that producers that have
provided 2010 guidance have focused on sustainable capital programs (i.e. Capex
equal to cash flow).
Surprisingly weather is having an impact – While we normally look to weather
impacting the ability to move rigs and production volumes as a Q2 phenomenon,
discussions with management teams through Q3/09 reporting indicated that
weather in the Q4 period has been fickle. Precipitation and the absence of a layer
of permafrost have challenged certain operations. While management teams are
hopeful conditions will improve in the coming days, the current situation may curb
production volumes through the final quarter of 2009 and set up a slow start for
2010.