【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月亚洲集装箱海运行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
We upgrade CSCL and Yang Ming to Buy
Freight rate hikes in 1Q10 have been strong and better than we expected. We
raise our earnings forecasts for liners under our coverage, and think there is upside
risk to consensus forecasts. Key positive catalysts in 2Q10: (1) rapidly declining
loss for the industry in 1H10, and (2) a positive outcome to Transpacific rate
negotiations. We recommend investors switch to laggards such as CSCL and Yang
Ming and continue to buy quality names such as OOIL and Evergreen Marine.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Recommendation Change
Top picks
Orient Overseas Int'l (0316.HK),HKD59.50 Buy
China Shipping Container (2866.HK),HKD3.17 Buy
Evergreen Marine (2603.TW),TWD18.90 Buy
Companies featured
China Cosco Hldgs (1919.HK),HKD10.50 Sell
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 11.9 – 120.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.9 – 25.6
Price/book (x) 0.9 2.0 2.0
China Shipping Container (2866.HK),HKD3.17 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) – – 47.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.5 – 16.2
Price/book (x) 0.4 1.3 1.3
Evergreen Marine (2603.TW),TWD18.90 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 26.2 – 60.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.1 – 6.7
Price/book (x) 0.7 1.1 1.1
Hanjin Shipping (117930.KS),KRW31,000.00 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) – – –
EV/EBITDA (x) – – 12.6
Price/book (x) 0.00 1.21 1.29
Neptune Orient Lines (NEPS.SI),SGD2.13 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – 31.5 13.4
EV/EBITDA (x) – 9.1 6.3
Price/book (x) 1.0 1.3 1.2
Orient Overseas Int'l (0316.HK),HKD59.50 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
P/E (x) – 22.9 10.7
EV/EBITDA (x) – 12.6 7.4
Price/book (x) 0.7 1.0 0.9
Wan Hai Lines Ltd (2615.TW),TWD18.35 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 26.7 – 20.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 13.3 5.4
Price/book (x) 1.1 1.6 1.5
Yang Ming Marine (2609.TW),TWD11.95 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 58.0 – –
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.2 – 10.3
Price/book (x) 0.6 1.0 1.0
Global Markets Research Company
Demand recovery continues to gather pace; stay invested in 2Q
Historical data suggest that re-stocking typically lasts for as long as economic
expansion continues. This, along with the record inventory burn-off, suggests that
inventory rebuilds will remain as a strong driver for volume in next three to four
quarters. A 50% delivery slippage in 1Q 2010 has helped the demand/supply
situation year to date. Supply headwinds may increase ahead as idle capacity is
brought back but, in the meantime, there are likely to be more positive data points
than negative ones for the sector over the next three months.
Rate hikes in 1Q10 surprised us on the upside; TP rate hike next
In our view, annual Transpacific rate negotiations in May should result in a return
to profitability for that route. While our earlier theme that the industry will turn
around in 2H10 appears increasingly likely, there will probably be a period of rate
consolidation after that as the industry absorbs the idle capacity.
Earnings, target price and rating changes
We significantly raise our 2010-11 earnings estimates across the companies under
our coverage as recent industry recovery turned out stronger than we previously
expected. We also raise our target prices for all the stocks under our coverage.
We upgrade CSCL and Yang Ming to Buy as they lag their peers. We downgrade
NOL and Hanjin to Hold from Buy due to their strong performance year to date.
P/B is the key valuation metric; freight rate is the major risk
We expect a gradual recovery in the industry over the next 12-18 months and
believe this warrants a valuation above book. But the substantial latent capacity
suggests that the recovery is unlikely to be V-shaped. In this sense, at 1.2x
forward PB, or one standard deviation above mid-cycle valuations, we believe the
sector is fairly valued, hence our Neutral view. An up/downside risk lies in freight
rates: a 1% rise in rates boosts 2010E earnings by 21-146% across the sector.
Table of Contents
Industry – supply influx to cap freight rates ................................... 3
Key points ................................................................................................................................3
Demand should continue to recover… .....................................................................................3
…but supply headwinds are also stiffening…...........................................................................7
… which will likely cap further hikes in freight rates ...............................................................12
Equities – industry turnaround in the price .................................. 13
Key points: ..............................................................................................................................13
Sector is fairly valued vs. prospective return ..........................................................................13
Stock ideas: switch to laggards and buy quality carriers.........................................................14
Individual company review......................................................................................................15
Key risks to our neutral view.......................................................... 21