2009.12.01全球电信设备业2010年展望
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UBS

Outlook 2010
􀂄 Remain Neutral on the sector, preference for secular growth stories
We continue to remain neutral to cautious on the telecom equipment sector and
advise on stock selectivity in 2010 with a focus on good quality long-term secular
growth stories.
􀂄 Themes for 2010: cyclical recovery, industry repair, Chinese competition
We believe the focus in the early part of 2010 will be on expectations of the extent
of cyclical recovery. In infrastructure we believe key themes will be potential mix
improvement, further market repair with a focus on NSN, increasing adoption of
single RAN solutions, and initial LTE launches. For devices, the focus will be on
increasing smartphone competition, possible shakeout in the OS space, and
consolidation/retrenchment by some players. We believe the threat from Chinese
competitors (particularly ZTE) will be a central theme across sub-sectors.
􀂄 What may surprise on the upside or downside?
On the infrastructure side, upside surprises for industry revenues may come from
faster than expected LTE adoption and Indian 3G, while downside surprises may
stem from operator consolidation. We believe Chinese 3G deployments could
surprise either positively or negatively. For handsets, surprises are likely to centre
on M&A and operating system strategies.
􀂄 Global most and least preferred stocks
Our preferred list of global telecom equipment stocks reflects those with exposure
to secular growth markets (Qualcomm, Apple, ARM) or leading or growing market
share position (Samsung, ZTE).