【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月欧洲烈酒行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：32
        【目录或简介】：
We take a more positive stance on the spirits stocks.
Following several quarters of negative top-line growth
driven by destocking, downtrading and reduced
consumer spending, the Spirits companies have just
experienced one of the sharpest top-line corrections in
history. We think the concerns highlighted in our
initiation report published in May have now largely
played out. With signs of recovery in premium spirits
sales in Asia and destocking coming to an end, we think
the downside risk to the top line and earnings has
significantly reduced. We still think that FY10 will mark
the trough for volumes, but see stabilisation ahead, with
the possibility of some volume growth in 2H FY10.
The market is too short-term focused. This year’s
holiday season promises to be highly promotional. This
is a key concern for investors and may explain the
continued sector underperformance and low valuation.
But we would argue that investors are inconsistent: in
other discretionary sectors (e.g. Luxury), investors
appear happy to look at “normalised” profits several
years into the future and pay corresponding multiples of
earnings. In Spirits, the coming six weeks appear to be
of such concern that investors remain on the sidelines.
In our base case, we argue for 10-20% upside on a
12-18 month basis, and 30-50% in a bull case scenario.
We continue to prefer Diageo, but upgrade Pernod
to EW and Remy to OW. Diageo’s share price
underperformance YTD, attractive valuation, strong
balance sheet and double-digit EPS growth make it our
top pick in spirits. Pernod and Remy are most exposed
to the categories and geographies where signs of
recovery are starting to show: Asia, cognac. However,
Pernod’s earnings are likely to be down 5% in FY10, we
think, and we expect Remy’s bottom line to benefit from
the Maxxium exit, and a new sales and distribution effort
in Asia and Europe. Our EPS estimates are 6-7% above
consensus for Diageo and Remy, and in line for Pernod.