【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月澳大利亚证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：
The past month seems to have brought a paring back of positions in banks
and a scaling up of exposure to the large miners, with the rotation happening
fairly quickly. The timing has coincided with the end of bank reporting, which
saw good results but a sense that prospects were already well priced into the
stocks; and the speed of the rotation seems to have reflected the liquidity in
the stocks – both the banks and the miners – which are the largest in the
Australian market. Since reporting ended around 9 November, bank shares are
down around 5% and the mining sector is up close to 10%, a fairly
pronounced difference, and the “trade” might now be considered largely
played out. But our sense is that the mining stocks will continue to perform
better, with bank shares having run so hard and now likely to lag for a while.
􀂄 It still comes down in the first instance to valuations. The mining sector and
the banks are now trading on pretty similar PE multiples on forward earnings,
particularly if spot prices for the bulk commodities are factored into mining
earnings. Yet on average over time the banks have traded on about a 20%
lower multiple than the miners. Taking the multiples on FY11 earnings, the
bank sector is trading at 11½x, which is where it would typically trade on one
year ahead estimates, not two years ahead, suggesting bank shares may
need to pause a while till earnings catch up. The mining sector is also trading
at 11½x FY11 earnings estimates if we take into account spot commodity
prices, but it could realistically trade at 13-14x these over the next twelve
months, so there seems upside if the conviction about these earnings grows.
􀂄 The conviction is understandably not there to the same degree as for the
banks just yet, but it should develop. Mining earnings estimates only assume
commodity prices move a little higher, which seems plausible in a recovering
world economy. And though commodity prices are already high, having not
come down greatly during the global recession, high prices reflect the
heightened demand for materials that now exists in the world. Though growth
across the developed economies could remain slow, and would limit somewhat
the growth in the emerging economies, the latter should still expand
solidly as they continue to modernize, and sustain materials demand. For the
banks, earnings estimates need to prove conservative to drive further
performance, but they already factor in a large recovery.