【出版时间及名称】：2010年欧洲公用事业行业展望
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
Large capex plans and shareholder
return expectations constrain deleveraging
potential as profitability is
now more challenged
􀀗 Low yields at the short end, and lack of
carry protection, mean that investors
should focus on core defensive names
at the long end or as the long leg of
CDS dispersion trades
􀀗 Key Overweights: Veolia, Verbund, Gas
Natural, UK Water WBS, RTE
Key Underweights : E.ON, Iberdrola,
RWE, EnBW, A2A, Edison
Overweighting long dated bonds from defensive issuers is the
name of the game under our ‘lower for longer’ interest rate
scenario and ‘avoid the low end of the spectrum’ credit view.
Our recommended strategy is therefore centred on
overweighting ‘real’ utilities - high proportion of regulated
revenues/state presence in the shareholder structure - at the long
end for yield pick up and focussing on undervalued credits eg
Veolia, Gas Natural, Verbund, UK Water in euros. We
recommend Underweighting integrated players that may have
to adjust to a lower volume/price environment for longer than
they might have expected - amid planned capital spending
levels that are still high for the sector. As it happens, most of
these also trade tight eg E.ON, RWE even Iberdrola.
High conviction trade ideas for 2010
Euro cash: Buy VIEFP 2017s, 2019s / Buy TWUL 2013s &
AWLN 2016s / Switch out of EOANGR 2017s , 2020s into
VERBND 2019s / Switch out of IBESM 2018s into GASSM
2019s, 2021s
Sterling cash: Buy NWENET 2015s (OpCo), 2021s, 2026s /
Switch out of SEVTRE, UU into KEL; AWLN / Switch out
of EDF Energy Networks into NG’s regulated businesses
CDS: Long ELEPOR risk - short IBESM risk / Long
VATFAL risk – short CENTRI risk
EUR35bn + GBP10bn of expected issuance
After an exceptional year (EUR74bn and GBP19bn) we
expect issuance volumes in the sector to normalise.