昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读309小时。

阅读1小时，累积阅读213小时

昨日阅读2小时。 总阅读时间89小时
Book of Value - The Fine Art of Investing Wisely 2016(Anurag Sharma)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=6303889&from^^uid=109341(Page 173-189)
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Depth Analysis, Dive for strength
A word of caution: The amount of information you will encounter is likely to be overwhelming. You will quickly learn that the big problem of analysis is not the lack of information but too much of it; this information is also likely to be unstructured and unorganized. It’s easy to get lost in the mass of data that companies are required to report, with reporting itself sometimes becoming convoluted and confusing. Part of the reason such complexity arises is that public companies vary in size from tens of millions in sales to hundreds of billions, and they may employ thousands of people across the world. Walmart, for instance, has over 2 million employees globally, not to mention the hundreds of thousands of others indirectly connected to the company as suppliers, vendors, and contractors. Public companies are complex entities, and the mandatory reporting is meant to ensure that they take the time to explain how they’re doing to investors and other interested parties. But the regulatory requirements can be so cumbersome that even simple facts can become befuddling and opaque to the uninitiated. Perhaps the best way to navigate through these filings, therefore, is to be clear about what you’re looking for in the vast amounts of reported information and go straight to the specific qualitative data with which to try to refute the investment thesis. Not all information in the filings is equally important; the key to being a wise investor is to have or develop the skills to quickly locate important facts that are relevant for the analysis at hand and then to make analytical judgments about the key uncertainties that characterize the investment thesis. Just as we have tried to refute the investment thesis on the basis of implied growth, yield, stability, and strength, we are now ready to dive deep inside the company to look for hidden traps and pitfalls. These potential vulnerabilities are mostly qualitative and, although we may use some quantitative markers, evaluating them requires considerable subjective judgment. As is true with most professions that rely on a body of experiential knowledge, only with experience will an investor be able to make such judgments with confidence. But the basic elements of qualitative inquiry can be learned fairly quickly. The principle of negation with which to approach the deep dive is the same as the one we have been using thus far, with one major difference. Instead of quantitatively refuting a clearly articulated investment thesis, we are looking for qualitative or narrative data that may help disconfirm the investment thesis. Because the judgments made in doing so are based on personal interpretations of qualitative data, you may not be able to clearly “hard” refute the thesis. The intent here is still to cast doubt to such an extent that disconfirmation is all but obvious. That is, our approach still is to interpret conservatively and to try to disconfirm the emerging beliefs based (by this time) on the previously executed but unsuccessful quantitative tests designed to refute the investment thesis. The skills necessary for the next stage of analysis favor journalists over mathematicians, poets over quants. The objective of the qualitative analysis is to try to cast doubt on the defining narratives of the company. We will try to do so on three broad fronts. First, if we have thus far been unable to refute the thesis on financial strength, we now want to use the quantitative data reported in the footnotes to the financial statements (as opposed to those in the tables) to disconfirm that the company has few or no obligations other than interest-bearing debt that is visible in the balance sheet. We must also evaluate such data to make a qualitative inference about the operations of the company. We want to check that not just debt but the overall financial burdens of the company are manageable and that its assets are in good order. Second, if we have thus far been unable to clearly refute the thesis using the stability tests, we now want to try to disconfirm the ability of the company to continue on its historical trajectory. As such, we try to discredit the business model of the company and question its ability to deliver consistent performance and growth in the near future. Finally, if we have thus far been unable to refute the company using the yield tests, we now want to disconfirm the proposition that the company is in an opportunity-rich environment and that it has suitable leadership in place to sustain the business and navigate through the uncertainties that inevitably lie ahead.

阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
- To get timely correct information for investment decision is important and we need to understand those matured stock markets information system, and compare to those that is assessable in China/HK. The quality of the information is also need to improve and when we use those information we still need to be more cautious.
- Perhaps the most common problems on the asset side of the balance sheet are errors in measurement. As such, each line item on the asset side is an aggregation of estimates that accountants make using appropriate estimation procedures; they are subject to errors. The likelihood of measurement errors increases for certain kinds of assets, such as plant and property, which are usually recorded at historical cost or, when acquired in a merger, at estimated fair value at the time of the transaction. In some cases, the estimates can be so out of line with the actual market value of the assets that the measurement errors become quite severe.
- Rules require that these and other financial assets be recorded or marked to whatever value at which they are traded at about the time the books close at end of quarter. A sudden drop in the market or trading value of the bonds reduces their asset side of the equation and translates into lower equity. In fact, many banks had subprime mortgage–backed that were subjected to market crash in 2007 and wiped out the minimal equity on the books. Banks and financial institutions often have loans and complex financial instruments on the asset side of their balance sheet. If investors do not correctly assess the quality of loans and the risks embedded in financial products, such assets pose serious risks to them. Investing in financial-sector companies is often hazardous, therefore, for most investors who do not have the expertise and the resources to make a thorough evaluation of the asset or loan portfolio. In fact, the risks embedded in the assets sometimes become so great that some managers, under pressure to deliver on expectations, may begin to contort data and use deceptions that are virtually impossible for an average investor to catch.
- For investors practicing the fine art of investing wisely, a careful scrutiny of the balance sheet and associated risks is an indispensable part of due diligence.

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昨日阅读时间1小时，总阅读时间381小时。

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昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读790小时
1. 10分钟正念修炼-O
2. 12点前睡觉-X
3. 走路6000步-X

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读155小时。

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读262小时

加入充实计划第2天 五条
1. 资料 EY-Integrated_Business_Planning.pdf
2. 精彩摘录

• 1  Ensure there is executive ownership for integrating business planning into the business management cycle. Ideally the same executive should be accountable for the overall integrated process.
  
• 2  Ground all strategic planning activities in shareholder value. Long-term planning isfocused on the financial performance necessary to achieve shareholder value objectivesand options for achieving this performance. These options and opportunities should be evaluated based on expected contribution to current and future value.
  
• 3  Resource the process. It is often expected that any activity related to business planning or strategy management is “absorbed” into day-to-day activity. In fact,explicit focus and dedicated resourcing are required to keep on track.
  
• 4  Conduct and articulate evidence-based decision-making, starting from a consistent base of understood inputs and assumptions. Ensure decisions made are understoodacross the organization. Do not rely on “gut feeling” to guide some decisions.
  
• 5  Ensure that the business planning process and the strategy itself are understoodacross the organization. Often, staff are given tasks to support business planning without adequate context to allow them to effectively make decisions. Provide themwith the ability to work and make decisions with the right context.
  
• 6  Elevate operational discussions. It is common that weekly and operational planning and discussions lose focus on the larger purpose and strategic intent.
  
• 7  Make it easy to manage. Organizations get lost in planning templates, project plans,decision logs and other seemingly sensible tools. Leverage a common platform thatcan be used across the organization to provide full visibility on progress and actions.
  
• 8  Make the process balanced in terms of strategic, financial, people and operational plans, not purely financial.
  
• 9  Ensuring that metrics, risks, and initiatives always tie back to the strategic objectives.
  
• 10  Formally link strategic planning to target setting. Strategic planning should not stand alone, but should be tightly linked to target setting.
  
  

3. 思考
执行运营中的业务流设计，负责人，与其他部门的合作和交互，与公司总体value和决策的契合度
碎片化知识整理总结，合并
任务之间，思路的快速切换，拆分

今日收获：与团队的沟通，计划的弹性和刚性
明日专注：外审准备

开始21天计划，包括每天工作之外专注4个25时间完成拆解任务，回顾一个总结模型，工作中的一个可以称作收获的总结。


4. 昨日阅读2h
5. 累计7h

1、文章链接：https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3472977
2、文章摘录：如果说分析和论断更多的是一种纵向研究的话，那么决策往往是一种横向比较的过程。

决策往往是在优中选优，或者是要弱中去弱。

你对某一个单点的，单个公司的论断，并不必然会导致你产生买入或者卖出的决策。

到了决策这个环节，你会发现，你需要承担的风险更大了。

事实上，投资就是一个连续决策的过程，而决策也是离交易最近的一个环节。

甚至有可能你会觉得，一旦决策做出来了，不就等于交易了吗？比如说，你在比较了几支股票之后作出了决策，不买格力电器买贵州茅台，因为贵州茅台的预期涨幅更高。

这的确是一个决策，而且根据这个决策，也会产生接下来的交易行为。

所以很多人会认为决策就相当于交易了。

但是我要告诉你的是，决策跟交易之间依然有很大的不同。如果说分析和论断更多的是一种纵向研究的话，那么决策往往是一种横向比较的过程。

决策往往是在优中选优，或者是要弱中去弱。

你对某一个单点的，单个公司的论断，并不必然会导致你产生买入或者卖出的决策。

到了决策这个环节，你会发现，你需要承担的风险更大了。

事实上，投资就是一个连续决策的过程，而决策也是离交易最近的一个环节。

甚至有可能你会觉得，一旦决策做出来了，不就等于交易了吗？比如说，你在比较了几支股票之后作出了决策，不买格力电器买贵州茅台，因为贵州茅台的预期涨幅更高。

这的确是一个决策，而且根据这个决策，也会产生接下来的交易行为。

所以很多人会认为决策就相当于交易了。

但是我要告诉你的是，决策跟交易之间依然有很大的不同。如果说分析和论断更多的是一种纵向研究的话，那么决策往往是一种横向比较的过程。

决策往往是在优中选优，或者是要弱中去弱。

你对某一个单点的，单个公司的论断，并不必然会导致你产生买入或者卖出的决策。

到了决策这个环节，你会发现，你需要承担的风险更大了。

事实上，投资就是一个连续决策的过程，而决策也是离交易最近的一个环节。

甚至有可能你会觉得，一旦决策做出来了，不就等于交易了吗？比如说，你在比较了几支股票之后作出了决策，不买格力电器买贵州茅台，因为贵州茅台的预期涨幅更高。

这的确是一个决策，而且根据这个决策，也会产生接下来的交易行为。

所以很多人会认为决策就相当于交易了。

但是我要告诉你的是，决策跟交易之间依然有很大的不同。你做的决策数量越多，其中的错误决策数也就越多。

所以在想象自己志得意满，取得骄人成绩之前，你首先要确保的一点是，自己在犯了这些错误之后，依然能够活下来，能够看到明天的太阳。

那么，我们怎么样能获得并且提高交易的容错性？

首先最重要的一点，就是仓位的管理。

只要你有小学数学水平，你就不难发现容错性的高低跟仓位的高低是成反比的。

你的仓位越高，你的容错性就越低。反过来，你的仓位越低，你的容错性就越高。因为即使你看错了股价变动的方向，它带给你的净值波动也会比较小。

我经常讲索罗斯在2008年的故事，这里再讲一次。

索罗斯在2007-2008年的次贷危机发生之前，就做出了精准的分析和预测，他的整个四步流程非常漂亮，他分析出金融泡沫可能破裂，得出了看空的论断，做出了做空的决策，也在交易上进行了做空交易。

一切是都那么完美，除了这一点——他空头的仓位过重。

在2008年的金融危机中，市场下跌的过程并不是有一气呵成的，而是一波三折的。在这个波动的过程中，由于索罗斯的仓位过重，导致了整个账户的净值出现了大幅波动，他扛不住这个波动，不得不被动做了减仓。

所以尽管索罗斯对次贷危机作出了天才般的预测，但是最终他2008年的收益只有8%。

当然这个收益率在2008年已经算非常非常抢眼了，要知道当年很多人都是亏了百分之二三十，但是对于索罗斯自己来讲是非常不满意的，他为此痛苦自责和反思了好几年。

讲完这个故事，你应该就能理解了，容错性跟仓位是成反比，要想提高容错性，你第一件要做的事是，不要仓位过重。

尤其不要放杠杆，放杠杆会极大地降低容错性，让本来可能赚钱的交易变得血本无归。

这就是巴菲特反复的讲，不要借钱炒股，不要借钱炒股的原因。

事实上，巴菲特成功的秘诀之一，正是因为他的资金来源是保险公司的浮存金，是非常长期的资金，这种资金属性天然自带很高的容错性，使得他能够扛住波动。这让他赢在了起跑线上。

3、个人感悟：交易本身是一个反人性的过程，本身具有不确定性的过程中自己寻找交易的依据。所以，分析过程我们应大胆求证，选择投资的逻辑和依据。但一旦进行投资，我们就应该勇于、及时发现自己的错误，及时承认错误，在认错的过程中不断交易。

4、昨日阅读：0.5小时。

5、总阅读时间：3.5小时。

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读104小时。今天读了经济学方面的书《垄断竞争理论》，该书主要讲的是张伯伦的垄断竞争理论，书中的理论其实在显示的市场中也能发现不少实例，比如现实市场很多价格是由垄断力量和竞争力量共同决定的。在这样的基础上，他提出了一种更具有启发性的混合理论来研究价格体系。《垄断竞争理论》中阐述了一种独具特色的分析技术，它既和我们比较熟悉的垄断理论和竞争理论有区别，也有别于两者之间任何一种的简单的折中。哎，其实中国的石油价格何尝不是这样呢？可气而奇怪的是，买这么贵，他们居然厚着脸皮说亏本，而且还为他们昂贵的价格找了一大堆理由——税率太高的确是一个理由

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7QrMOlRtHEBwRG9P9cNTVw

地产一梦三十年，醒后已是江湖远

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pRySfuW-UKNNU1xkXG8TXQ

智能洗车

欧美网红如何社交带货？

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ca3AtUG9H8Ho_COG3YYQwQ

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ap9uWsuT5sg11PIdixnMXQ

方三文

https://xueqiu.com/6598111890/120064029

大型跨国药企阿斯利康副总裁首次推广中药产品及行业发展趋势

昨天阅读2小时，累计阅读206小时。

今天学习和阅读约5小时，累计阅读约1620小时。
学习和投资心得：
布局指数基金：第一、市场处于低位，是发行指数基金的黄金时间。指数基金具有被动管理和工具属性两大特征，指数化投资获利的途径只能是低买高卖。因此，基金公司发行指数基金只能选择在低位布局。（其实主动管理型基金也一样，道理是一样的）。由于指数基金只是被动拟合指数，没有主动管理的因素，等到上证指数涨到4000点甚至5000点时再去发行指数基金，参与者获利的概率就较小了。当前A股的估值是处于历史的第五次低估区域，此时正是布局指数基金的黄金时间。过了这村就没这店。如果A股低估值状况在2019年没有改观的话，明年仍会有更多的基金公司去布局。第二、基金公司运作指数基金性价比较高。和主动管理型基金相比，指数基金只需要被动拟合指数，需要投入的投研力量要小得多。而且指数基金主要是依靠金融工程，对基金经理的依赖程度较小，即使基金经理离职，对基金公司的影响也不是很大。虽然指数基金提计的管理费的费率比主动管理型基金要少，但其承载的容量要大得多。一个成熟的量化团队管理十几只指数基金，带上百亿（甚至几百亿）资金，这都是家常便饭。指数基金只要把规模做起来了，对基金公司而言，性价比其实是比主动管理型基金要高的。第三、机构有布局的需要，有强大的市场需求。这应该是最重要的原因，有需求才会有产品。指数基金具有费率低廉、公开透明、受人为影响因素较小等优点，是资产配置的理想工具。近几年随着FOF、养老目标基金、智能投顾等业务的发展，机构进行指数化投资的趋势也越来越明显，所以对指数基金有巨大的需求。像工银瑞信这次募集的上证50ETF，户均认购额为141万元，基本都是机构所为。目前市场处于低位，机构更多的是借道指数基金入市，而不是像以前那样直接交易股票。指数基金是当工具使用的，投资指数基金亏损了，你是不能去骂基金公司和基金经理的。因此，指数基金随市场波动对基金公司品牌的影响也较小。不像主动管理型基金，搞亏损了基民就要开骂。对基金公司而言，规模是指数基金的生命线。不同于主动管理型基金，指数基金是被动拟合指数，评价标准除了费率之外，主要是流动性和跟踪误差等指标。规模越大，流动性越好，也更容易减少跟踪误差，所以指数基金是规模越大越好。投资者在选择指数基金时，在其他指标相当的情况下，会优先考虑规模大的基金，这样就容易形成“锚定效应”。同一个指数，处于规模头部的几个基金会越做越大，而规模一般的基金要想做起来难度则非常大。所以各基金公司拼命要把自己产品的规模做到头部，否则生存会异常艰难。机构投资指数基金是来赚钱的，不是去当解放军的，有买就会有卖。随着越来越多的机构加入指数化投资，在未来的“联合收割机”里面，除了传统的股票之外，恐怕会加入指数基金这一新的工具。所以指数基金（特别是ETF）的一些申赎数据，要引起我们的重视，这些都是研判大盘的重要依据。

昨日阅读1小时，累积阅读611小时

今日阅读两小时，总计阅读9小时。
看了inside space X的纪录片，讲述space X不断失败的历程，每一次失败都是数十万美金的商业损失，但这并未阻碍space X前行的脚步，当时感觉这么些失败都能挺过来，还有什么能打败他们呢，后面看到BF9发射成功的时刻，他们的员工都沸腾了，隔着屏幕也能感受一股热血涌动，这是一个伟大的时刻，不断推动人类走向极限，新的巅峰，马斯克说了句让人印象很深的话，大家需要梦想的激励……一如看《人类群星闪耀时》，每每在这些历史性的时刻都让人感动不已……

昨日阅读1小时，累积阅读97小时

1、昨日3小时，总计50小时。2、阅读《必然》、《门口的野蛮人1》、外刊，复习会计实务；
3、【摘录】
在未来30年里，减无纸化、去中心化、即时性、平台协同和云端的发展将继续强势发展。只要科技进步使得通信成本、计算成本继续下降，这些趋势都是必然。这是通信网络扩张到全球的每一个角落所带来的结果，而随着网络化的加深，智能逐渐代替了物质。无论这些趋势在何处发展，这种巨大的转变都是确定无疑的。趋势背后潜在的数学与物理原理将始终不变。当我们推进减物质化、去中心化、即时性、协同平台化的云端所有这些方面的发展时，使用权将逐步取代所有权。对于日常生活中的大部分事物，对事物的使用将会胜过对其拥有。
4、【感想】
这些大趋势都是能够预见的，那么我们在购买一些所有的科技产品的时候，是不是应控制自己的冲动消费欲望。因为随着科技的进步，新的科技产品会以更加低廉的价格出现。可是，当所有人都以这样的态度消费，那么科技企业还有什么动力进行创新呢？
5、【单词】
Because of the taint of xenophobia, progressives are quick to treat all nostalgia as prejudice, leading them to dismiss the fears of whole sections of society.
<词汇>
nostalgia  n.怀旧;乡愁;对往事的怀恋;怀乡病
(He might be influenced by nostalgia for his happy youth.)
prejudice  n.侵害;成见，偏见，歧视;伤害
               vt.使有偏见;不利于，损害
(Her study was not in any way intended to prejudice the future development of the college)

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