【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国Reits行业研究报告
        【作者】：KenBanc
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：41
        【目录或简介】：

ACTION STATEMENT
After three years of maintaining a defensive posture, we are now more optimistic about the prospects for REITs. Today, imminent
disaster appears to have been averted, and the REITs are now just faced with the lingering effects of a severe recession. Of course,
higher borrowing costs and continued deleveraging could also remain a nagging drag on earnings. Despite the challenges, we
expect the REITs to move higher in 2010, driven by: 1) the premium yield offered by REIT dividends; 2) prospects for significant
accretive growth through acquisition; 3) a likely bottoming in real estate fundamentals, characterized by stabilized-to-improving
demand and limited new supply; and 4) a fair valuation vs. replacement cost and vs. Baa corporate bond yields.
Given these dynamics, we expect the REITs to deliver a 10% total return in 2010 – almost evenly split between a 5% dividend yield
and 5% appreciation – with the MSCI U.S. REIT Index (RMZ - price only) reaching 650 by year-end. Importantly, we are cautious on
the group in the near term, given the significant slack in the economy and related deflationary forces, prospects for further downward
earnings revisions, a potential re-acceleration of equity issuance activity and a possible rise in short-term interest rates. In contrast,
we could become more constructive if accretive acquisition opportunities became available from distressed sellers and began to
offer the earnings upside that has already began to be priced into the group. We suspect that the REITs could see some moderation
in the first half of the year, given downward earnings revisions and potential equity issuance, though the group should be stronger in
the back half of 2010, as investment opportunities and job growth pick up and better 2011 operating conditions begin to come into
focus.
Stay on your toes. We maintain a significant degree of caution related to the preponderance of global macroeconomic and
geopolitical risks, particularly the need for real economic growth to take the baton from government-related drivers. However, we
suspect that the efforts of mutually interested and engaged parties/governments will translate into the current trajectory being
maintained in 2010. In other words, we expect concerted government efforts to ultimately transition into a period of organic
economic growth. To some extent, it also feels as though the world has become somewhat desensitized to systemic risk, given the
events of the last two years and even the last decade – of course, the global support that has been provided by governments has
likely facilitated this condition. Accordingly, investors will need to remain tactical in 2010.
How to play it. In conjunction with our more constructive outlook, we are upgrading 15 stocks: 8 from HOLD to BUY, 7 from
UNDERWEIGHT to HOLD. We are downgrading two health care REITs from BUY to HOLD. We are recommending an overweight
position in the mixed office and triple net sectors and have become more constructive on apartments and self storage REITs. We
have reduced our enthusiasm for the health care REITs somewhat, and are marketweight the retail sector. We recommend an
underweight position on the focused office REIT sector.
As 2010 gets underway and the nascent recovery takes hold, the earlier cycle sectors will likely begin to benefit fundamentally,
including self-storage and apartments. The suburban office and shopping center names will be presented with greater core
weakness, while the CBD office, triple net and health care sectors should hold relatively steady.
Thematically, we expect smaller companies with accretive acquisition opportunities and relatively stable core businesses to
outperform (e.g., EPR, FPO and PSB). We also see select opportunities in less expensive, higher leveraged REITs that have limited
core portfolio or balance sheet re-pricing risk (LSE, CSA, YSI).
Our top picks for 2010 include Camden Property Trust, DuPont Fabros Technology, Cedar Shopping Centers and
Entertainment Property Trust.
REIT DIVIDENDS - BETTER THAN A SHARP STICK IN THE EYE
It is hard to get excited about the absolute 3.9% weighted average cash yield on REITs. However, in an era of zero percent interest
rates and super-accommodative monetary policy, this yield requires a closer look.
• On a simple average basis, REITs yield 4.8%; the lower weighted average yield reflects the low cash dividend yields of Simon,
Vornado and Macerich;
• The current 68% AFFO dividend payout (75% on a simple average basis) vs. 2010 earnings estimates is likely a trough level as
earnings will improve and payouts will increase;
• The all-in yield on REITs, including stock dividends, is 4.3% - we suspect stock dividends could soon fall by the wayside, if the
capital markets remain stable; and
• The sunset of the Bush dividend tax cuts may boost the relative attractiveness of REIT dividend yields vs. qualified dividends (i.e.
S&P 500 yield 1.9%).
Since 2003, REIT dividend yields have maintained an average 110 bp spread over the 10-year Treasury bond and a 320 bp spread
over the 10-year TIPS. Prior to the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008, the average spreads were closer to 95 bps and
291 bps, respectively. Currently, the spread between weighted average REIT dividend yields and the 10-year have narrowed to 15
bps, while the spread over the TIPS is 235 bps – these spreads are 59 bps bps wider when you incorporate stock dividends. While
REIT yields are not compelling on a relative basis, we suspect that these yields reflect trough earnings power and have the potential
to rise at an above average rate from current levels.