【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月英国Reits行业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：64
        【目录或简介】：
A sub-trend economic recovery will limit
rental growth, with prime City and prime
West End office markets outperforming
􀀗 We forecast a further 10% fall in average
London office rents, limiting the upside
for UK office REITs
􀀗 We upgrade BLND and SHB to Neutral (V)
and reiterate Underweight (V) ratings on
LAND, HMSO, GPOR and Underweight on
DLN. Target prices project largest
potential downside in DLN and GPOR,
where rental recovery hopes are most
overbought
UK REITs have underperformed the FTSE All Share index
by 8% on average in the year to date, however we believe
their performance still overestimates the potential for growth
in central London office rents in 2010 and 2011. We forecast
strong rental growth will be restricted to the prime City and
prime West End markets, supported by historically low
future supply, while sub-trend demand will weigh on
average London office rents.
Rental reversion support for British Land and Shaftesbury
portfolio values
We upgrade British Land and Shaftesbury to Neutral (V) from
Underweight (V) to reflect their high relative exposure to prime
London office and retail markets, providing sector-leading
reversionary potential. We believe those characteristics should
support further growth in portfolio valuations and NAVs against
an uncertain economic outlook.
In contrast, we forecast further falls in NAVs for Land
Securities, Hammerson, Derwent London and Great Portland
due to our forecast that average London office and average UK
retail rents will fall another 5% in 2010. Hammerson and
Derwent London’s thin rental yield margins over the cost of
finance generate weak net income returns, while Land
Securities and Great Portland’s over-rented portfolios in nonprime
locations should lead to further underlying net rental
income erosion and underperformance to March 2011.
We reiterate our Underweight (V) ratings on Land Securities,
Hammerson, Great Portland, and Underweight on Derwent
London (though we remove the (V) flag). Target prices for all
the stocks are raised by a third on average, in accordance with
our new valuation methodology, which is a blend of DCF and
forward-adjusted NAV valuations.